Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Down 5.0% — Pull the Trigger on a Sell?
Key Points
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) continued to lose ground in the latest session, sliding 4.96% and giving up $1.78 to close at $34.11. The stock finished well below the prior close of $35.89, extending a retreat that leaves shares under pressure near the lower half of their recent trading band. Trading interest was muted, with roughly 5.6 million shares changing hands, running at about half the stock’s 90-day average volume of 11.1 million. The lighter activity underscores a lack of strong buying support as the price trends lower.
From a longer-term perspective, Moderna is now trading sharply below its recent 52-week high of $47.70 set on Jan. 8, 2025, putting the stock more than $13 off that peak and highlighting the extent of the pullback. The gap from that high illustrates how far the shares have retreated as they continue to face headwinds. Within the broader biotech and life sciences group, several peers such as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Zoetis (ZTS), Insmed (INSM), BeOne Medicines (ONC), and Natera (NTRA) have also seen uneven trading in recent sessions, reinforcing a picture of a sector that has been under intermittent pressure. For Moderna, however, the combination of a sizable single-day percentage drop, a meaningful dollar decline and subdued volume signals a market that is stepping back rather than stepping in, keeping the stock on the defensive in the near term.
Why Moderna, Inc. Price is Moving Lower
Despite the recent bounce into the mid‑$30s, caution is warranted as the latest move in Moderna, Inc. is being driven more by sentiment and technical recovery than by a clear, sustainable shift in fundamentals. The stock remains deeply negative over the past 12 months, following a near‑50% decline, and still trades in the lower half of its 52‑week range. That backdrop reflects persistent concerns over the durability of its post‑pandemic revenue base and ongoing losses. Earnings per share sit at about -$8.07 and profit margins are sharply negative at roughly -140%, highlighting a business model still under significant pressure to convert its mRNA pipeline into consistent profitability rather than episodic vaccine windfalls.
The recent quarter‑over‑quarter revenue jump to about $973 million from $114 million—an increase of more than 750%—has not eased those concerns meaningfully, because longer‑term revenue growth is still running around -45%. Investors appear wary that the latest revenue spike is tied to a narrow set of products and may not offset the broader downtrend as legacy COVID demand normalizes. At the same time, trading has been volatility‑driven, with above‑normal price swings and volume coming off a depressed base, mirroring speculative rotations across biotech rather than company‑specific upgrades or blockbuster approvals. Against a backdrop of weakness and elevated risk across sector peers such as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Zoetis, Insmed, BeOne Medicines, and Natera, the recent rebound looks more like a fragile relief rally than a firm foundation—leaving the stock vulnerable to renewed downside if sentiment cools or pipeline updates disappoint.
What is the Moderna, Inc. Rating - Should I Sell?
Weiss Ratings assigns MRNA a E rating. Current recommendation is Sell. The stock was downgraded on 5/7/2025, and that negative stance remains in place. An E-rated stock carries one of the poorest risk/reward profiles in our universe, signaling that downside risk meaningfully outweighs upside potential for investors at this time.
Several underlying factors help explain why MRNA scores so poorly. The Weak Growth Index aligns with sharply contracting fundamentals, including revenue declining 45.44% year over year. The Very Weak Efficiency Index is another red flag, with operations destroying rather than creating shareholder value, as seen in a deeply negative profit margin of -139.60% and a forward P/E ratio of -4.45. These metrics indicate ongoing losses with little visibility into a near-term turnaround in profitability.
On the risk side, the Weak Volatility Index suggests investors have been exposed to significant price swings without being compensated through superior returns. That is confirmed by the Very Weak Total Return Index, which captures the stock’s failure to reward shareholders on a risk-adjusted basis. In other words, investors have been absorbing volatility but not seeing commensurate gains.
The one bright spot is the Excellent Solvency Index, implying Moderna, Inc. has the balance sheet strength to meet its obligations. However, within the Weiss Ratings framework, strong solvency alone does not offset persistent losses and poor total return. Within the Health Care group, peers such as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY, D-), Zoetis Inc. (ZTS, D+), and Natera, Inc. (NTRA, D-) already carry weak ratings, and MRNA’s E places it at the very bottom even among these challenged names.
About Moderna, Inc.
Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. Operating within the pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences industry, the company has concentrated its business model around a single platform technology, leaving it heavily exposed to the scientific, regulatory and commercial risks associated with mRNA. Its portfolio spans infectious disease vaccines, oncology candidates, rare disease programs and autoimmune and cardiovascular projects, but most of these remain in clinical development and are subject to substantial technical and approval hurdles.
The company’s highest-profile product is its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, which has made its commercial position heavily dependent on one therapeutic area and one modality. Beyond COVID-19, Moderna is attempting to translate its platform into a broader range of vaccines and therapeutics; however, none have yet achieved the same level of market penetration or established long-term demand. This concentration increases the company’s vulnerability to shifts in public health needs, competitive vaccine offerings from large pharmaceutical peers with broader pipelines, and evolving regulatory standards in the Health Care sector.
Moderna promotes its mRNA platform as highly scalable and adaptable, but it faces intense competition from both traditional biologics and other next-generation modalities such as gene therapies and protein-based vaccines. Many rivals possess more diversified revenue bases, deeper commercialization experience and larger global distribution networks. As a result, Moderna must continually invest in research, clinical development, manufacturing and safety monitoring just to maintain relevance, with no guarantee that additional mRNA products will achieve durable adoption in a crowded and rapidly advancing biotechnology landscape.
Investor Outlook
With Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) carrying an E (Sell) Weiss Rating, investors may want to exercise caution and closely monitor how the company addresses its elevated risk profile relative to potential rewards. Watch for shifts in the broader Health Care landscape, regulatory developments, and any changes in the company’s operational execution that could influence future rating moves or price stability. See full rankings of all E-rated Health Care stocks inside the Weiss Stock Screener.
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