Here's My Independent, Unconflicted Market View on this Independence Day
The Fourth of July has always been one of my favorite holidays, right up there with Thanksgiving. Regardless of our political leanings, our family situations, our views on the markets or anything else, we can all enjoy coming together as Americans and celebrating the birth of our great nation.
With stock and bond trading shut down here in the U.S., it also gives us a chance to reflect on the bigger picture. And in the spirit of independent thinking, I have to say that MY market views are very, very different than what you’re hearing most of the time on the financial news shows.
Even though they fill 24 hours a day with commentary, there's plenty that they somehow manage not to cover. Their analysts pretty much ignore how the market is getting narrower and narrower — with the action almost completely dominated by one over-loved, overvalued, overhyped sector (technology).
Their pundits seem happy to avoid discussing the ongoing deterioration in other key sectors like financials, as well as the meltdown in several foreign markets.
Their experts can’t be bothered to talk about the persistent widening out in credit spreads, or the continuing collapse in the Treasury yield curve. And I can’t recall hearing anyone stake out a position that January’s blow-off top was the last hurrah for the easy-money-fueled bull market that began in March 2009.
Me? Sorry, but I’m going to call things like I see ‘em. That’s my job as an analyst at an independent research firm. And all of those things are very much on my mind these days.
So, while I’m celebrating the Fourth with my family and friends — and I hope you have the opportunity to do so as well — I’m also keeping an extremely wary eye on what’s happening on Wall Street (and in Washington).
What I see is very troubling. It all suggests a potent needle has been stuck in the “Everything Bubble” — once and for all. That means you should continue to take the kinds of protective, defensive actions in your portfolio I’ve been recommending for months now.
And if you haven’t, don’t wait any longer. Get started as soon as the markets open tomorrow — before the REAL stock market fireworks start going off!
Until next time,
Mike Larson
