Oil Production Down, Prices Up … But Don’t Rush to Invest!
Is it time to invest in oil companies? Low oil prices over the last year had been chipping away at the profits of oil companies, causing business failures, and raising industry-wide concern. Some of the failures include Ultra Petroleum (UPLMQ), Midstates Petroleum (MPO), and Pacific Exploration & Production (PEN.TO), just to name a few.
As a result, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) came to an agreement last week to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day. The reduction would decrease the supply, thus increasing the demand and price. Not great news for an everyday consumer, who will now have to spend more money at the pump, but it is a positive sign for oil companies.
Although the news sounds promising, don’t rush to put your money in oil companies just yet. Our data still indicates weak industry performance and ratings.
Over 79 percent of the energy sector stocks are a SELL. Only one company, Antero Midstream Partners LP (AM), was upgraded within the last two weeks to a B-, entering the BUY range. Currently, there are only 10 BUY rated energy stocks--that’s a mere 1.1 percent of the entire sector.
Even Apache Corp. (APA), a company that recently discovered vast oil and natural gas resources in Texas, is rated D and has a negative 24.4 percent three-year, and a negative 28.2 percent five-year, performance.
The Weiss Ratings ETF universe doesn’t have any BUY rated funds with investments in energy. Out of 64 rated ETFs in the energy category, 16 are a HOLD and 48 a SELL.
Mutual Funds are in the same boat, no BUYs! There are 109 HOLD mutual funds, and 123 SELL in energy related investments.
Overall, our ratings paint a grim picture for energy investments. The agreement to cut oil production appears to be a step towards a more stable oil industry, because projected price increases will be good for the industry.
However, there are other major oil producers that are not part of OPEC--Russia and the U.S. included. Russia said it will make cuts to oil production, but is not required to follow through. And the U.S. would hope for higher pricing that would, at some point, make production in many U.S. oil fields financially viable again.
Recent history suggests that national interests will eventually cause any agreement to break down. Iran, who has only just become able to sell on the world market following the withdrawal of sanctions, will face internal pressure to bring in much needed cash to the country, and is a prime candidate for non-compliance. Time will tell whether or not the oil supply reduction agreement will have any real, long-term positive effects on the hurting energy industry.