Treasury ETFs have been on a tear in recent times, with five year average returns of 40.9 percent. This might appear completely at odds with the convention that says with interest rates so low nobody would be interested in these bonds as an investment. On the contrary, we have seen with the turmoil in European markets and others, paired with punitive negative interest rates in Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark and Japan, the banks are reaching out to the gold standard in safety, U.S. Treasuries.
But watch out, some economists are saying this flight to safety will not continue. As soon as the U.S. increases interest rates, these returns that have been obtained, will disappear.
Whilst it may be true an increase in interest rates will cause some pull back, not only should it be fairly obvious that it is going to be implemented, but there is not going to be a significant increase any time soon. Just listen to Janet Yellen speak. She is clearly, as we have said before, the first Fed Chairman to be paying as much attention to the macroeconomics in play in the global economy as in the U.S.
Europe is still in a mess. With a stagnant recovery from the recession looking as if it could reverse into recession again, the volatility of the Brexit implications as the Brits cast off the shackles of Europe, even though it clearly has a price to pay and, of course, the fragility of the European banks we reported on in our 2016 Global Bank Report.
If this sounds confusing, remember ETFs are a way you can invest in a basket of funds that remove the risks of investing in only one stock, just like a conventional mutual fund. But they also give you the flexibility to trade it like a stock. This means you can hold an ETF. And if you decide--having weighed all the evidence of the Weiss Rating, what you are seeing in the markets, and your overall approach to risk--you want to sell, you can do that almost immediately.