Anthropic vs. OpenAI: Only One IPO is Set to Capture the SpaceX Momentum
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| By Chris Graebe |
We all know the old adage, “The early bird gets the worm.”
In the IPO game this summer, the late bird doesn't just miss the worm …
It could miss out on a feast of opportunities for the rest of 2026.
That's exactly the situation unfolding right now between OpenAI and Anthropic.
Both companies, which want to be the first major AI model developer to go public, just filed for IPOs.1 And both are chasing sky-high valuations.
Anthropic’s is near $1 trillion.2 OpenAI was last valued at $852 billion.3
But only one of them gets to be first. And in today’s market, that gap between first and second place could be worth billions.
Why? In a word, FOMO.
The SpaceX Problem
Before either of them gets their moment in the spotlight, there's a $2 trillion elephant in the room.
SpaceX went public last week. It was the largest IPO in U.S. history, raising $85.7 billion.
That’s more than double Saudi Aramco’s 2019 raise of $29 billion ($37 billion inflation-adjusted).
SpaceX opened at a $1.8 trillion valuation and closed above $2 trillion.
Money moved, portfolios reshuffled and cash that was sitting on the sidelines got deployed.
And now, OpenAI and Anthropic are set to show up with their hands out.
Patrick Healy, founder of Issuer Network which advises companies going public, put it bluntly:
"There's only so much oxygen in the room. SpaceX is going to consume an absolute ton of capital, and the guy that goes second is going to have a better position than the guy that goes third."5
Yes, second is better than third.
Those investors who paid a big post-IPO premium for SpaceX, or missed out altogether, don’t want to see the next one pass them by.
So, whichever among OpenAI and Anthropic goes last isn't just behind.
Rather, it will be fighting for whatever scraps of investor capital are left after two of the most anticipated public offerings in recent memory have already come to the trough.
We’ve Seen This Before
Go back to 2019 when Lyft (LYFT) and Uber (UBER) were the two dominant players in ridesharing.
Everyone knew both were going public. The question was simply, “Which one will go first?”
Lyft won that race, but its IPO didn't exactly set the world on fire.
The stock underwhelmed. And investors grew nervous.
By the time Uber showed up two months later, the damage was already done.
Uber cut its target valuation before it even hit the market. And its shares still fell after its debut.
One lukewarm IPO poisoned the well for the other.
Now imagine that dynamic playing out between OpenAI and Anthropic …
Except this time the stakes are dramatically higher.
SpaceX has already consumed a massive chunk of Wall Street’s wallet before either of them gets their turn.
The last one to the party doesn't just get the worst table.
It might not get a table at all.
The Irony of This Particular Race
By many measures, Anthropic is the better-run company.
Dario Amodei has built a focused, disciplined organization with a clear mission.
The technology is serious. So is the leadership.
- Anthropic hit a snag with the Trump administration over its latest model. Though, that should be cleared up before IPO time.
- OpenAI, meanwhile, has been fraught with internal drama from leadership upheaval to board chaos to public controversies that would have sunk most other companies.
But does any of that matter?
Probably not.
In the IPO race, being the better company might not be enough.
It’s entirely plausible that OpenAI lists first and stumbles.
It has a track record of making headlines for all the wrong reasons.
If that happens, Anthropic could be forced to delay, scale back its valuation or list into a market that has already grown skeptical of big AI valuations.
The better horse could still lose the race simply by running second.
What This Means for You
The AI revolution is real.
Whether you’re on board with it or not, you can’t deny it’s not going away.
At least one of these IPOs will probably be a historic market moment.
But remember that exciting stories and great investments aren't always the same thing.
We've already seen what happens when some of the biggest, most hyped IPOs of a generation hit the market at valuations that have already priced in decades of expected growth.
Uber taught us that in 2019.
And now with SpaceX out the door and continuing to gobble up investor dollars, OpenAI and Anthropic will be jostling for what’s left.
The investor who chases both headlines could end up holding the bag on whichever one goes last.
Me? I'll have my popcorn ready.
And while everyone else is watching the parade, I'll be looking for something earlier, cheaper and a lot less crowded.
That’s where the real opportunity lies.
In fact, I found one of these opportunities that could provide much larger returns than SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI combined.
How? Because it isn’t yet in the “trillion dollar club.” It’s also not had its own IPO.
This private investment opportunity might close fast, however. Watch this before it does.
Happy hunting!
Chris Graebe
1 https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/openai-just-filed-ipo-anthropic-174703373.html
2 https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h
3 https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/openai-ipo-initial-paperwork-filed-with-sec-212841389.html
4 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/business/spacex-biggest-ipos-elon-musk.html
5 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/openai-anthropic-ipo-race-0cf0ed36
