Market Minute with Kenny Polcari: Jan. 30, 2023
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| By Kenny Polcari |
Welcome to another episode of Wealth & Wisdom! Let’s get down to our business for the day, which is evaluating last week’s market activity in anticipation of what’s in store for us this week.
Last week was rather productive, with the markets continuing to march higher as the week progressed. There were some setbacks, but by Friday afternoon, all the major indexes closed higher.
We had lots of data …
Specifically on Friday, Chevron (CVX) reported record quarterly and annual profits. They also announced a whopping $75 billion stock buyback plan and raised their dividend.
However, traders weren’t happy with the results as they expected even more, so they took 4% out of the stock — which is almost laughable — but that’s how it goes.
We also saw the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index report come down on Friday, which is a good thing. But if you include food and energy, it’s at 5% and still not close to the Fed’s 2% target.
This all brings us to …
The Week Ahead
First up, we’re going to get Exxon Mobil’s (XOM) earnings report. And as you know, it is by far the largest oil company in the U.S. So, I’m curious to see what kind of numbers XOM will be reporting.
Of course, at the top of everyone’s list is the Fed’s announcement this Wednesday, with everyone expecting them to hand us another 25-basis-point increase.
Additionally, I am in the camp that believes Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is not going to be changing his narrative. He’s going to continue saying the Fed, while data-dependent, is on the path of higher rates. That means there needs to be at least three more 25-basis-point increases.
On Wednesday, we’ll get the first of the three. The second increase will be in March and the third will come in May. At that point, I think the Fed will pause and then hold rates at that level just to see how it’s working its way through the system.
While inflation is coming down — as last Friday’s PCE report showed us — we’re not exactly where we need to be just yet.
In addition to the Fed’s announcement this Wednesday, we’re getting the ADP National Employment Report and the nonfarm payroll report, which are always the big data points on the first Friday of every month.
I’ll tell you what those numbers are expected to be, plus more details below on additional data points coming out this week and what they mean, so don’t miss out!
Click here to view video.
Click here to get my rundown and be sure to check your inboxes tomorrow for the next installment of my weekly video interview series, Wealth & Wisdom.
To your Wealth & Wisdom,
Kenny Polcari
Host
P.S. A key component in navigating the ups and downs of market cycles is understanding the timing. That’s why Weiss Crypto Analyst Juan Villaverde and Dr. Martin Weiss held a Zoom conference carefully explaining crypto cycles and how to trade them. The recording won’t be available for long, so I suggest you watch it now.
