Why an HVAC Company Has a $12 Billion AI Backlog
 |
| By Michael A. Robinson |
Having knocked around Silicon Valley for more than 40 years, I like to think I stay abreast, and usually ahead, of major trends.
We’re talking about everything from advanced chips and software, to quantum computing and the cloud, to e-commerce and big data, to the biggest one of all, AI.
Along the way, I’ve earned a reputation for making market-crushing calls.
I don’t say that to boast — well maybe just a little — but to put this next statement in its proper context.
If you’d told me 10 years ago — scratch that — even five years ago that an “old economy” firm that does plumbing and electrical work would become a tech star, I would have laughed in your face.
But that’s exactly what’s happening as big tech embarks on a massive $1.7 trillion buildout for data centers.
Today, I want to introduce you to a classic AI supplier that still has sales hooks that go beyond tech.
And did I mention it’s on track to double its earnings in as little as a year?
An Historic Boom
Currently, there are about 4,000 data centers in operation in the U.S. right now.
But that number is projected to double in the next few years as new, bigger AI data centers start breaking ground.
This is the largest infrastructure buildout since WWII.
It’s going to take a variety of upgrades that will go far beyond the digital world.
For example, the average AI data center ranges from 200,000 to 1,000,000 square feet.
And they require from 100 MW to 1 GW of electricity. A gigawatt of electricity is enough to power a city of over 100,000 people.
That’s impressive. But the most impressive aspect is that 30%-40% of that electricity is used for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC).
Remember, the heat generated by racks and racks of high-performance servers requires huge amounts of cooling.
On the macro level, there are two huge efforts to support this growth.
First, President Trump has launched Project Stargate, a $500 billion public-private joint venture to buildout massive AI data centers.
Second, we have a massive onshoring boom.
According to IndustrialSage, $1.77 trillion has already been committed to U.S. manufacturing and industrial investments.2
5x the Web Buildout
Just the basic buildout from this push is going to be 5x bigger than the web buildout of the 1990s when many of today’s tech titans were born.
And the downstream economic boost will be even bigger.
Some of the numbers that we can reliably project are massive.
Construction demand will double. Because it’s not just the data centers, but the roads, plumbing, electricity (whether onsite or distributed to the sites), etc., that have to go along with them.
Fiber optic cable capacity will quadruple, and copper use will grow 8x.
Remember, there’s wiring in the gigantic data centers. But also, all that data needs to be shipped out to the waiting world.
And to pull all of this off, it’s going to take some serious engineering services.
All of this has to be engineered to very exacting standards because data centers need to operate on the “five nines principle.”
They need to be operational 99.999% of the time — heat, cold, floods, hurricanes, etc. That’s about 5.26 minutes of downtime … per year!
While all this sounds daunting, there are enormous opportunities here as well.
The new economic and governmental benefits this buildout will provide will be a bigger shift than the growth of the internet, mobile communications and next generation computing combined.
But none of this happens if we can’t keep the giant data centers cool.
An Electric Star
The surprising twist to this bright tech future comes down to what some call “old economy” or “pick and shovel” companies.
These are the companies that actually build the structures, move the earth and wire and cool these buildings.
And my favorite now is Comfort Systems (FIX).
Founded in 1997, through a roll-up of a dozen regional HVAC firms, FIX has grown into a national giant that has more than 50 different subsidiaries across U.S.
The goal was to create a national company that could handle massive multi-state service contracts while allowing local companies to retain their regional brands and management.
Ironically, while it’s headquartered in Houston, it doesn’t have any companies working in Texas, the current No. 1 AI data center state.
However, it’s well represented in Virginia, the No. 2 data center state with plenty of growth underway.
Residential, commercial, institutional and light industry HVAC were its core business.
As it grew, it looked for new opportunities. And during the AI boom, it saw an opportunity.
The result: a $12 billion sales backlog.
Besides AI-centric work, FIX has a growing list of hospitals, schools, universities and commercial buildings that it serves.
Earnings on the Rise
FIX is a winner with or without AI. But its AI business is certainly a turbocharger as the underlying engine of growth continues to accelerate.
Case in point, earnings tripled between 2021 and 2024, before the AI data center boom got rolling.
And its earnings continue to easily blow past Wall Street estimates quarter after quarter.
Over the past three years, FIX has grown its per-share profits an average of 78%.
At that rate, earnings will double in less than a year.
That’s also why it currently has a “B” rating:
Add it all up and you can see why FIX is a great play on the AI buildout that will bolster your stock profits for years to come.
Best,
Michael A. Robinson
P.S. I recommended this stock back in September 2025 to my Disruptors & Dominators readers. They are now sitting on an open gain of 142%.
But don’t think you missed out. FIX is still a power play for the AI buildout. And it’s not alone.
I have other, newer ideas I’m loading my readers up on right now. Check out what I found most recently here.
1https://www.industrialsage.com/us-manufacturing-investment-tracker/
2https://www.industrialsage.com/us-manufacturing-investment-tracker/
3https://investors.comfortsystemsusa.com/static-files/ae41d154-b88b-468a-b0eb-291d2419fd78
