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| By Juan Villaverde |
For the past month, markets have marched to the beat of the oil drum — which itself trades on headlines coming out of the Trump White House.
And yet, there are signs crypto markets may be entering our much-anticipated "relief" phase.
Possibly as soon as this week.
A Change in the Winds of War
After clambering back to roughly $76,000 early last week, President Trump gave Iran’s Revolutionary Guards "48 hours to surrender." And threatened to bomb civilian energy infrastructure if they refused.
Bitcoin (BTC, “B+”) sold off smartly, falling as low as $67,000.
Later, Trump walked back his tough rhetoric. He conceded talks with Iran were underway. Exchanging the 48-hour surrender window for a five-day deadline to reach "some form of compromise.”
Investment markets breathed a sigh of relief at this sign of de-escalation. From highs near triple digits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude retreated to under $90 a barrel.
Even so, failure to conclude any actual peace deal has left investors on edge, with many still fearing the worst.
If all this seems a bit chaotic to you, you’re far from alone. With oil markets and asset prices whipsawed by the winds of war and Truth Social posts, these are very wild times to be an investor.
That said, here are a couple of things worth noting.
The president appears to back down every time oil exceeds $100 a barrel. Almost without fail, as WTI crude approaches triple digits, some form of conciliatory message emerges from the White House.
Recent examples include …
- Promising to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, if necessary,
- Un-sanctioning Russian oil exports and most recently, the …
- Release of Iranian oil "stranded at sea."
I’ve even heard reports that Trump’s Treasury Secretary actively shorts oil futures above $100. He says he can use America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to cover those contracts.
Here is something else lots of investors have missed. The bond market has been selling off sharply since the conflict began.
The key benchmark — the 10-year Treasury yield — is closing in on 4.5%, as I write.
The last time it hit 4.5%? April 2025. See below:
Yields on 10-Year U.S. Government Bonds
As you can see, the last time the 10-year rate — the global benchmark for interest rates — reached 4.5% was last April.
Remember, that’s when President Trump announced a 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariff plan, declaring it a success.
Bonds rallied sharply, bringing rates back down.
Sound familiar? It should.
We are once again approaching the same danger zone on this benchmark. And we’re hearing a similar rhetorical adjustment out of the White House.
And so, I repeat what I've been saying the last couple weeks: This final week of March — and to some extent the first week of April — is reversal time for global asset markets.
That means assets that have been rallying should turn down. And assets that have been falling — or stuck in the mud like Bitcoin — should begin to rally.
Three key dates align between now and the end of next week:
- Oil is due for a sharp reversal around March 26 — which was yesterday! And we already see Mideast benchmarks falling sharply. Oman crude, for example, fell from $170 a barrel last week to just above $90 this week.
- Bitcoin was flagged for a reversal around March 24. As I write, what looks like a critical low appears to have formed on March 23.
- The U.S. stock market is due to bottom April 3. This is slightly out of phase with the other two. But within a one-week margin of error, all three are lining up.
It may be that markets will "wait" for the S&P 500 reversal zone next week before risk assets rally in earnest.
But it is no coincidence that as this week began, the tone from Washington shifted noticeably from escalation to de-escalation. And that Mideast crude is selling off sharply, which suggests more is a foot than just idle chatter from the White House.
A reversal is coming — and it’s coming fast.
The question that remains is, will you be ready when it comes?
My Weiss Crypto Investor Members are. At least, they have exposure to the large-cap cryptos my Crypto Timing Model suggests will be among the first to rally.
To see which made the cut, and how my model can help you target specific buy and sell opportunities for long-term crypto investments, click here.
Best,
Juan Villaverde
