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| By Juan Villaverde |
The past week has been quiet on the crypto front.
As I write, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading about in line with where it was last Friday, near $81,000 and change.
But this relative quiet doesn’t mean nothing happened.
In fact, something massive happened. You just won’t see it on any price chart …
Bitcoin and JpM2 Realign
Over the past few weeks, I’ve told you that a deviation between Bitcoin and liquidity opened up in early August.
It persisted through much of September.
Then, it closed, with Sept. 21 the likely key date when liquidity and price realigned. Both fell between that date and the Oct. 18 low.
As it stands now, both by liquidity indicators — Japanese M2 (JpM2) and Central Bank Liquidity (CBL) — agree. And BTC is following their path, with a three-month lag.
This realignment matters. It’s why Bitcoin’s October low landed almost exactly where I’d been expecting it for months.
I said to expect that low the week of Oct. 19.
On a closing basis — and remember, my model only uses closes, never intraday wicks — we can now confirm that low landed on Oct. 17, just above $80,000.
(If you want the intraday extreme, Bitcoin spiked into the high $79,000s on Oct. 15.)
From there, Bitcoin has rallied all the way back to just under $84,000 just yesterday before pulling back.
Is it too early to declare realignment a done deal? A little, yes. The action over the past day and change support caution.
But the tools that called this have earned the benefit of the doubt.
And I’m inclined to give it to them.
One thing that would make me more confident is if altcoins confirm the same bottom.
They’re cooperating, but only partially.
Several altcoins I track also bottomed right around Oct. 18 — some on that exact date — and have rallied modestly since.
But much like Bitcoin, the rally there has been tepid. Not the kind of leading strength that would let me lean on altcoins as independent confirmation.
So, this remains a Bitcoin and liquidity story for now.
That’s not insignificant, however. This means we can go back to using these tools to map out what comes next.
And what they say is this: Expect a push higher into late October or early November.
From there, we’ll see a pullback over a couple of weeks into a low around Nov. 20, followed by one more leg up into a final top in early December.
My price target for that top remains $90,000 to $95,000.
This next rally won’t be as strong as the one we got in August and September — realignment buys us a weaker, but still real, move higher.
What comes after that is what I want you to focus on.
Because after December, I strongly suspect we’ll see a 320-day cycle correction. Not another 80-day one.
The correction we just went through — the one that started Sept. 21 and wrapped up around Oct. 17 — ran about 30 days, typical for an 80-day cycle move.
A 320-day cycle correction runs longer, typically a couple of months. Starting from an early-December top, that points to a low landing in late January or early February.
Just like we saw in 2026. And you know as well as I that cycles tend to rhyme.
All three forward-looking tools I track agree this is a multi-month correction. However, it’s still too early for liquidity to give me a target for the exact bottom.
Spotting Crypto’s Next Major Bottom
All we can see so far is a correction starting around the first week of December. And prices falling — or in the case of JpM2, flatlining — through at least mid-January.
On the other hand, the bond market, historically the least reliable of the three on timing, points to mid-February.
My own forecasting model favors the first half of January.
The low could technically come on any of those dates.
Regardless of when the exact low comes in, the takeaway for you in the same: This time period — late December, early January — will likely be a major buying opportunity.
It’ll likely the last solid entry opportunity before the next multi-year cycle gets underway.
Which means you’ll want to prepare your target prices now. This way, you’ll be able to act the moment your opportunity presents itself.
Best,
Juan Villaverde
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