Bitcoin’s Bullishness Goes Beyond New High Above $118,000
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| By Juan Villaverde |
At the end of June, I told you that my Crypto Timing Model had highlighted July 7 as a key date to watch.
It came too close to the June 22 low to be a high.
Which meant, to me, this would likely be a reversal date. A day when sentiment shifted.
Despite my model’s incredible track record — and the latest pattern of key cycle dates aligning with macroeconomic events — July 7 came and went quietly.
But forecast dates always come with a certain probability window around them. In this case, the window extended to the end of the week.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC, “A-”) showed its first sign of a potential breakout. It propelled it past the $110,000 area to come within kissing distance of fresh all-time highs.
This occurred shortly after powerful forces propelling crypto’s advance got a second wind.
Then, yesterday, that wind turned into a cyclone to throw BTC above its May 22 high.
And it is only just cooling off … slightly. It’s up almost 6% in just one day and 9.4% over the past week.
At the time of writing, BTC is sitting near $117,800.
As I said earlier, my model has noticed a pattern of key cycle dates aligning very nicely with significant macroeconomic forces.
So, what was the latest macro catalyst?
Last week — on America’s Independence Day, no less — President Trump signed his “One Big Beautiful Bill” into law.
And it’s going to increase America’s national debt by a whopping $5 trillion.
Elon Musk’s reaction was to break with the Trump administration (again) and form his own political party. According to Musk, the America Party is dedicated (almost) entirely to solving the ever-growing federal deficit — once and for all.
But don’t hold your breath!
Following Trump’s election victory, I heard from a lot of folks who thought Elon was the guy who was uniquely qualified to slash deficits and eliminate government waste.
“He’s the world’s best businessman!” many declared.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not one to minimize Elon Musk. The man is an undeniable visionary.
Plus, he already owns businesses involved in practically every aspect of what’s needed to make such a vision a reality.
But here’s the fact that few people consider: Governments are not businesses. Nor do they run like them.
Governments are in the business of harvesting votes, not profits. And to harvest votes, you have to hand out free stuff.
It could be large tax cuts — like those in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. Or the massive subsidies preferred by the Biden administration.
It really doesn’t matter. Because all Western democratic governments — on the right or left — eventually fall into the same trap.
Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor put it like this:
“Governments aren’t about sound economic policy. They play a behavioral incentive game to win votes, whip-sawed by short-term political cycles.
“This leads them to barter financial incentives for votes. ‘We will give you a tax cut’ or ‘We will give you extra healthcare benefits’ … are two sides of the same coin.”
Politicians pay lip service to “doing the right thing,” and being “fiscally conservative.” But at the end of the day, voters decide who stays in office. And they, by and large, feast on government freebies.
Look, this year’s federal deficit is running nearly $2 trillion — up from last year.
And that’s just a drop in the bucket.
America’s accumulated debt already tops $35 trillion. And the One Big Beautiful Bill now promises to increase yearly deficits by $2 trillion.
Simply put, the U.S. government is hurtling toward bankruptcy. And no power on earth can stop it. Not even Elon’s Space X rockets can stop the momentum of an institution built to trade handouts for votes. It’s that simple.
Of course, none of this is new. It’s an old story that just keeps getting worse.
It’s also why I got into crypto in the first place. And why I keep 90% of my wealth there — now and for the foreseeable future.
At the end of the day, the only way to pay for metastasizing deficits is to print money. And because of this, paper currencies are destined to go to zero — likely over the next few decades.
Thanks to permanent deficits and endless handouts, the future value of the dollars, euros and yen in your pocket is 0.
Sure, you can park your wealth in real estate or stocks. But if you want to thrive in a world where currency debasement accelerates year after year — you need to be in Bitcoin and other crypto.
These are the only assets that, over the past decade, have not merely triumphed over debasement. They’ve crushed it.
Look, governments are — and will remain — on a path to financial Armageddon. Nothing can stop them.
But that doesn’t mean you have to go down with them.
Remember, crypto is your life raft, going forward.
That’s the very bullish long-run outlook for crypto.
Best,
Juan Villaverde
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