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| By Marija Matic |
For the first time in weeks, crypto Twitter isn't entirely miserable.
That’s because Bitcoin (BTC, “A-”) just ripped back above $88,000 today after dipping to almost $80,000 on Friday.
Of course, after November’s volatility, any green feels like salvation.
But here's the thing investors should be cautious about: This weekend’s pump doesn't automatically mean a breakout is imminent.
It does, however, tell us something is stirring.
Peace Talks Overshadow the Weekend Playbook
Every crypto veteran knows the typical weekend pump playbook …
Weekend volumes drop 20-25% when institutions clock out. While the adults are away, the thin-volume market turns into a casino where every bet moves the needle.
That’s why weekend momentum trades can generate larger returns of weekday moves and means you wake up to an optimistic Monday morning.
Sounds like fun.
That is, until you realize that most of these weekend pumps are followed by Monday's brutal reality checks.
Especially if they go hand in hand with the infamous "CME gap" — the price difference that appears on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Bitcoin futures chart when trading closes on Friday and reopens on Sunday night. That’s because some traders might want to go back to fill it.
That gap currently sits at $85,100.
But today’s trading has taken on a different flavor as Ukraine peace talks in Switzerland are reportedly making progress.
Futures across the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all popped on the news.
When it feels like geopolitical risk is unwinding, risk assets recover.
Given that the start of the Ukraine war sparked a sharp decline in the stock market, with commodities heading in the other direction, any prospect of a conclusion to the conflict could renew appetite for riskier assets.
Follow the Money
Beyond the macro set up, institutional activity shows the tug-of-war between confidence and caution.
$1.94 billion fled crypto investment products last week, pushing the four-week exodus to $4.92 billion.
That's the third-worst stretch since the 2018 nuclear winter, according to CoinShares. U.S. institutions led the de-risking stampede with $1.7 billion heading for the exits.
But dig deeper and the story gets interesting: Friday saw $225 million suddenly rush back into Bitcoin — the biggest single-day reversal across all products!
Ethereum (ETH, “B+”), meanwhile, pulled in $57.5 million.
It's like watching the tide change in real-time.
Meanwhile, XRP (XRP, “C+”) is living in a different universe entirely. While everything else bled, it vacuumed up $89.3 million in fresh capital.
The payment rails trade is clearly on. And someone with deep pockets is positioning aggressively ahead of ETF approvals.
The Thanksgiving Test
We're heading into Thanksgiving week.
That means the TradFi markets will be closed on Thursday and only open half a day on Friday. Meaning we’re about to enter the liquidity equivalent of a weekend on steroids.
Bitcoin could trade like a penny stock by Wednesday!
But thin markets cut both ways.
After four weeks of relentless U.S. institutional selling, the weak hands will be busy slicing turkey instead of hitting the sell button.
If buyers show up while everyone's carving turkey, the squeeze could be violent.
Meanwhile, Ukraine peace talks continue to gain momentum. And if negotiations yield concrete progress this week, risk assets could catch a sustained bid just as liquidity dries up.
The quarterly loss of 24% puts us on track for the worst Q4 since 2018.
But that's also when the best risk-reward setups emerge.
The combination of exhausted sellers, peace talk progress and skeleton-crew trading could make this a Thanksgiving to remember.
Which is why no matter what you hold or the strategy you use, it may be worth it to check in on your coins as you enjoy your holiday leftovers.
Best,
Marija Matić
P.S. While the 24/7 nature of crypto has its benefits, it can also be exhausting. Keeping up with everything on-chain requires a lot of dedication!
But my colleague, Chris Graebe, targets plays that aren’t just off-chain. They’re insulated from market moves … because they’re not on the market.
Like early Bitcoin investors, Chris finds opportunities on impressive companies … before they’re household names.
And he just found his next candidate he plans to target for that kind of upside potential.
He’ll unveil all the details tomorrow at 2 p.m. Eastern. To find out more, grab your spot by clicking here.
