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| By Juan Villaverde |
It’s almost St. Patrick’s Day, and cryptos got a welcome glimpse of green.
Bitcoin traded up near $85,000, up close to 5% over the past day. This gave other top cryptos a lift.
If you’re wondering whether this is finally the bottom, I come bearing good news.
This likely isn’t it. But it’s coming!
Let me explain …
In late January, my Crypto Timing Model said Bitcoin was entering a 320-day-cycle correction within the context of a bullish four-year cycle.
This is actually the third such “intra-four-year cycle correction” we’ve had since the bull market started back in November 2022. There was one in 2023, starting in April, and another in 2024, starting in March.
These corrections are long, drawn-out processes. They take prices down significantly. And they shake out all but the most ardent bulls by the time they end.
This last point is critical: 320-day-cycle corrections only end when most market participants turn bearish.
As a cycles analyst, I’ve seen this countless times. In fact, I rarely even bother looking for a 320-day bottom anymore if the social media consensus is that this is “just another correction.”
But eventually, cavalier dismissal gives way to something darker and more serious. Some people post memes about their accounts going to zero. Others say, “zoom out.”
Because when seen from sufficient altitude, it is possible to claim Bitcoin has been in a long-term bull run since 2010.
Both actions, however, betray the same sentiment: fear that the bull might be dead.
It is precisely at times like this — when most worry and many panic — that prices finally set a low.
Like a pendulum at the furthest extent of its arc, whenever the selling is exhausted, prices have nowhere to go but higher.
This is the stage we’re entering right now.
I’m not saying this week was the final low for this correction, mind you.
Usually, 320-day-cycle corrections end with some type of double-bottom. Or a sideways trading range lasting several weeks.
So far, we’ve not seen either of these. So, it’s too soon to look for any big rallies.
But one thing it’s safe to say is this. From this point forward, the downside is extremely limited.
So, keep yourself well away from any panic that might permeate the market. And continue to keep a close watch on your inbox for your next moves to make.
Best,
Juan
P.S. We’ve got a big week ahead of us. That’s because my colleague, startup investing specialist Chris Graebe, is opening the doors to a new “Alpha Round” deal to Weiss members.
This deal is set to open on Thursday, March 20.
Now, this is not like buying cryptos, where you can buy or sell at any time. If you miss it, that’s it.
That’s why so many members have already reserved their spots at the investor’s table in advance.
Click here to see what all the excitement is about.
It doesn’t matter whether it’s a good week for crypto or a miserable week for the Nasdaq. Or even the next month or year. That wouldn’t hurt the value of those Alpha Round shares.
Chris has all the details here. I encourage you to hear him out before the weekend is over.
