Is Bitcoin a Bet on Trump Winning?

By Juan Villaverde

Someone once told me that, in a U.S. presidential election year, everything revolves around the first Tuesday in November. 

I scoffed. Surely not everything, right? 

I forgot about that until this year. And while not everything revolves around Nov. 5, it sure feels like it sometimes.

For example, lately it looks like Bitcoin could become a bet on Trump winning the White House.

Now, we know that isn’t necessarily true. After all, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general were designed to be apolitical. 

Bitcoin was created as a decentralized alternative to government-controlled money. 

In theory, Bitcoin is the embodiment of “money separated from the state.” 

So, it doesn’t matter who is in power.

That’s the longer-term view.

Here in the shorter term, though, Bitcoin’s price action seems to keep getting tangled up in the political drama. 

After all, Bitcoin’s last three 80-day-cycle turning points aligned suspiciously with Trump-related events. 

• July 13: Bitcoin rallied after a failed assassination attempt on Trump. Coincidentally, this also marked an 80-day-cycle low on the Bitcoin chart.

• July 28: The rally continued right up until Trump’s highly anticipated speech at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville. Afterward, the market paused, resulting in the latest confirmed 80-day-cycle high.

• Aug. 23: When independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign and threw his support behind Trump, Bitcoin surged again.

Let’s talk about Aug. 23. After all, it wasn’t just any normal Friday — it was the same day Fed Chair Jay Powell signaled from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that interest-rate cuts are coming. 

Many credited Bitcoin’s spike to Powell’s remarks. And sure, the Fed’s announcement gave Bitcoin a bit of a lift. But not the 6% gain it ultimately saw.

It’s hard to ignore the possibility that politics was the real catalyst for the move.

And now, with the next big crypto cycle turning point on the horizon, it’s even harder to ignore the potential political connection.

The next big cycle turning point, according to my Timing Model, is Tuesday, Nov. 5. 

That’s Election Day in the U.S. 

If the pattern holds, that date could mark a major low in the market … followed by yet another rally.

Of course, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Trump may not win. And honestly, that might not matter as much as some might think. 

Crypto is still finding its way into the political mainstream, it’s now on the radar of both major parties. 

Whether it’s Trump or Harris taking the oath of office on Jan. 20, 2025, we’re looking at a more pro-crypto U.S. government than we’ve ever seen before.

And if that isn’t a reason to stay attuned to the crypto market, or start to dip a toe in for the very first time, I don’t know what is.

Best,

Juan Villaverde