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| By Juan Villaverde |
Bitcoin (BTC, “A-”) now appears to be firmly be in its 4-year cycle consolidation phase.
Some people may call this moment “crypto winter” — when prices fall for 12 months.
But this is a misnomer.
That’s because crypto prices usually don’t spend 12 months going down. Instead, BTC tends to spend most of this time moving sideways.
And with a roadmap to navigate the downside volatility, crypto winter actually offers the best buying opportunities of the entire 4-year cycle.
The Benefit of a Bitcoin Reset
Knowing where the next key bottom will form is critical.
Just because Bitcoin hit the low $80,000s last week doesn’t automatically mean it’s time to buy. (Unless you have a very long, multi-year investment horizon.)
This is where my Crypto Timing Model and liquidity forecasts are useful.
Both help distinguish cyclical signals from noise. They give me visibility into which rallies should be sold into … and which are genuine buying opportunities.
With that in mind, let’s look at the next two key turning points between now and late Q1 2026.
To do this, we’ll use the 10-year Treasury forecast chart, as a map of …
What the Next 4–5 Months May Look Like:
A picture is worth a thousand words. Observe how the 10-year Treasury bond prices loosely predict Bitcoin 13 months in advance.
Emphasis on loosely.
That said, this chart perfectly illustrates what my Crypto Timing Model is predicting: two lows. But only one represents the long-term bottom.
The first is the overdue 80-day-cycle low (the vertical green dotted line).
model said was most likely to occur between Nov. 20–22.
Sure enough, Bitcoin fell to a low on Nov. 21.
How do I know this is only the 80-day-cycle low? Because of how Bitcoin reacted going into and out of that low.
Bitcoin rallied strongly on Nov. 20 and, after hitting its low the next day, it bounced from roughly $80,000 to nearly $90,000 this week. This tells me the 80-day-cycle low is most likely already behind us.
What does this imply going forward?
Over the next month or so, Bitcoin will likely clamber back into the high-$90,000s — maybe even slightly above $100,000.
That’s a target BTC could reach by Christmas. But like I said, that’s only the first low my model has marked. And it’s not a significant one.
As you can see (above), after that month-long move up, T-bonds show prices heading even lower. And descending into a more significant 320-day cycle bottom (the vertical red dotted line)— sometime in Q1.
And it’s this low that I’m focused on. Because based on the T-bond bond chart, it could be the final low-water mark for crypto winter.
There are two reasons I say this:
a] Bitcoin was nowhere near overbought in 2025. Unlike prior cycle peaks, Bitcoin never reached extreme valuations this year. Indeed, many indicators already show the market dramatically oversold.
Cycles love symmetry. So, a cycle that wasn’t overwrought on the way up … is quite likely to be on the tepid side, going down.
b] Liquidity is very likely to go up through 2026. And buoyant liquidity should help support Bitcoin during the down-phase. It won’t fully negate the 4-year cycle turning negative. But it does suggest crypto winter will be mild.
The precise date is still to be fine-tuned. However, late January to early February is the tentative window.
And after that, as you can see, comes a strong rally according to T-bonds.
Apparent Contradiction
I noted at the outset that the down-phase of the 4-year cycle typically lasts around 12 months. But now, T-bonds are saying Bitcoin’s final bottom could be only two or three months away.
Only one scenario simultaneously satisfies both of these apparently contradictory forecasts. Here it is:
Bitcoin bottoms in Q1 2026, rallies strongly into mid-year. Then for the rest of the year, it oscillates between that Q1 low and the 320-day cycle high that follows.
As a practical matter, I expect to face mostly range-bound trading in 2026, with Bitcoin stuck between:
- $50,000–$70,000 on the low end (likely the Q1 low), and …
- $90,000–$100,000 on the high end (mid-year 320-day cycle high).
That’s a wide range.
And one that should have chances for profitable trades … if you’re tactile enough to make the most of them.
Or, you may want to take a more conservative approach to crypto. One that doesn’t require you to own a coin or even open a wallet.
My colleague and tech expert Michael Robinson just issued several reports on the TradFi companies at the heart of the $19 trillion real-world asset (RWA) boom.
To learn how you can use them in your crypto strategy, click here.
Best,
Juan Villaverde
