U.S. Jets Down Over Iran! Longer War, Higher Oil Prices Ahead
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| By Bob Czeschin |
Describing Iran’s air defenses last Wednesday, President Trump said:
"They have no anti-aircraft equipment. Their radar’s 100% annihilated. We are unstoppable as a military force."
That was obviously a bit premature. Because, since then …
An F-15E superiority fighter was shot down in southwestern Iran.
The pilot was rescued. And a wounded second officer fled on foot into the rugged Zagros Mountains.
There, he eluded pursuers for 36 hours before a dramatic rescue by U.S. Special Forces.
An A-10 Warthog ground-support jet supporting this rescue effort was hit over Iran.
It managed to limp back to the Persian Gulf before crashing. The pilot was recovered.
Two HH-60G Pave Hawk helicopters were also hit during the F-15 rescue mission.
Both crash-landed across the border in Iraq. All crew rescued.
An F-16CJ “Wild Weasel” electronic warfare jet was hit over Saudi Arabia near the Iraqi border.
A KC-135R Stratotanker was forced down near Tel Aviv after taking enemy fire.
These events point directly to an unwelcome conclusion.
One that’s not yet factored in by most analysts.
Or reflected in market prices.
Many more U.S. planes and pilots are going to be shot down over Iran, going forward.
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There are two key reasons why.
One, the Pentagon is fast running out of smart weapons that can hit targets hundreds of miles away.
What’s left are dumb bombs. The kind that require you to be above the target to drop.
Of the thousands of sorties flown against Iran since Operation Epic Fury began, the vast majority involved various stand-off weapons launched from well outside contested airspace.
America’s famous Tomahawk cruise missile, for example, can precisely hit targets 1,000 miles away.
Between last June’s 12-day war and Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. commanders fired off about a thousand of them.
That far exceeds its use in previous conflicts.
Think of it this way.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies says the Pentagon normally buys about 90 new Tomahawks a year.
At that rate, it would take 11 years to replace what war on Iran has already cost.
America’s precise inventory of Tomahawks is of course a closely guarded military secret. But estimates run about 3,000.
Which suggests the Pentagon has already burned through at least a quarter of its entire arsenal.
And unless this hemorrhaging is swiftly halted, few if any Tomahawks will be available for any other military emergency.
Such as a Chinese move against Taiwan, for example.
However, the Pentagon still has plenty of old-fashioned dumb bombs.
But using them requires U.S. planes to be inside Iran, more or less over the target.
Where they’re totally exposed to enemy fire.
Moreover, if anything else goes wrong — like an accident or mechanical failure — the plane still goes down in enemy territory.
Two, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is copying a deadly tactic used by the Viet Cong against the U.S. in Vietnam.
This makes sense, because the IRGC is fighting an asymmetric war just like the Viet Cong.
And one of its main tactics was:
“Shoot-to-wound first. Shoot-to-kill second.”
According to this doctrine, a wounded enemy soldier is more valuable than a dead one.
Likewise, a crippled enemy aircraft is more valuable than one destroyed.
The reason is simple.
Every soldier detailed to tend the wounded is one fewer facing the enemy on the front line.
Plus, Medevac helicopters called in to evacuate the wounded are big, fat, slow-moving targets.
Vulnerable to standard infantry weapons like rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs).
Or concentrated small arms fire against the pilot.
A pilot forced to bail out of a stricken aircraft is to the IRGC what a wounded U.S. infantryman was to the Viet Cong.
Look at what it ultimately cost the U.S. military to rescue the F-15 Eagle crew:
- One Warthog close-support jet.
- Two Pave Hawk helicopters.
On top of that, U.S. rescue teams were forced to abandon (and subsequently destroy) two MC-130J transport planes they flew in on.
Because their nose gears sank in the Iranian sand, preventing them from taking off again.
They cost about $100 million each.
In the end, the U.S. military safely got all its personnel out. Which counts as a victory.
But adding up the cost of lost and damaged U.S. equipment, it’s hard to argue the IRGC didn’t come out way ahead.
So, expect to see these tactics enthusiastically embraced and repeated by Iranian forces going forward.
What all this boils down to is this.
The IRGC is not quite the crushed and shattered adversary depicted in Trumpian rhetoric.
They are stubborn, determined and unlikely to come to any meaningful agreement that satisfies Trump.
And because of this, odds are the fighting will continue and intensify.
And oil prices will stay higher for longer than most investors anticipate.
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Best,
Bob Czechin
