We’re Halfway to Bitcoin’s Next Bottom … And Your Chance to Buy
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| By Juan Villaverde |
Last week, crypto markets proceeded downward as expected. Bitcoin hovered near $76,000–$77,000 for a time.
Then, it turned decisively down and broke below local support near $74,000. though it has now slid lower. As I write, BTC trades near $73,000.
As we head into late June, I expect it to at least test $70,000.
And I increasingly suspect it’ll fall below there to trade in the $60,000 - $70,000 range until this summer’s low.
Why?
Because that’s what the data tells me.
As you know, I’ve been tracking two main liquidity indicators that give us insight into Bitcoin’s likely price trajectory over the medium-term outlook: Central Bank Liquidity (CBL) and Japanese M2 money supply (JpM2).
Both align with my Crypto Timing Model and suggest a significant low will hit between late June and late July. But they diverge when it comes to how Bitcoin will trade between now and then.
CBL is more bullish. But Bitcoin has decisively been following JpM2 throughout this year. And this week’s weakness suggests it’ll continue to do so through the coming weeks.
Interestingly, the altcoin market is holding up much better than Bitcoin.
But that's almost entirely because alts didn't rally much during the February–May window. Which you may recall, both my Crypto Timing Model and liquidity indicators identified as crypto's time to rally.
It makes sense, then, that they're not selling off much now.
In fact, there is near-complete apathy in the altcoin market right now. Which I find oddly encouraging. Because investors tend to gravitate toward Bitcoin — and Bitcoin only — during the final phases of crypto winter.
So, altcoins going nowhere is quietly bullish. And it’s another piece of evidence the market is unlikely to break below the Feb. 5 low near $60,000.
Especially considering this correction is already halfway over.
My only surprise? Even as global markets increasingly price in an end to the Iran war, crypto has failed to catch a bid.
Oil prices, by contrast, have almost completely detached from crypto, and gone in opposite directions.
Oil and Stocks Detach from Crypto
After trading in negative correlation for a stretch last week, oil and stocks remain inversely correlated — oil up, stocks down.
But Bitcoin is doing its own thing — making lower highs and lower lows as the correction unfolds.
While I'm a bit surprised by that, I'm also somewhat relieved. It means we don't need oil to sell off for Bitcoin to find its footing. And more importantly, it suggests we may be leaving the “Correlation 1” regime — where BTC, inverse oil and stocks all move together — behind entirely.
Why does that matter?
Because it means we can go back to using macro indicators and my timing model to forecast Bitcoin. Without having to factor in geopolitical headlines and external shocks.
And it means we can say with confidence a strong buying opportunity awaits us on the far side of this sell-off.
The lackluster price action in altcoins — and to some extent in Bitcoin itself — also tells a story …
This correction is nothing like the February crash earlier this year.
Instead, it's a cyclical consolidation before a meaningful rally later this year.
From a trading perspective, this isn't the type of market climate you go short in. It's the type where you wait for prices to come down … before loading back up.
And if you’re an investor with a longer horizon, you might consider checking out my recent briefing.
The low ahead will be the next best time to get in for the rest of the year. And in my briefing, I break down how my Crypto Timing Model can help you find the best time to enter and exit the market to make the most of your long-term crypto strategy.
Best,
Juan Villaverde
