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| By Juan Villaverde |
I said last week that the only thing this market cares about is oil.
And trading this week proved me right.
Though, despite the Iran War weighing heavily on global markets, this week actually started well for cryptocurrencies.
In fact, as the week got underway, we got treated to …
A Brief Ray of Hope
This is the same chart I showed last week.
While the correlation between stocks and crude remained locked, Bitcoin (BTC, “B+”) began to break away from both. It climbed as high as $76,000 Monday — despite oil remaining well above $90 a barrel.
That's good news.
It also tells us something critical about the market's path of least resistance: That, absent a surge in the price of oil, crypto assets will rally, as our macro models indicate they should.
But then, along came Wednesday …
Correlation to Oil Prices Restored
The price of crude surged, causing risk assets — crypto included — to sell off sharply. As I write, Bitcoin is down almost 5% for the week.
And it brought most of the rest of the crypto market with it.
As you can see, we're not out of the woods yet. The market's focus remains squarely on the Middle East.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for more than a week or so, the damage to the global economy will be severe. An alarming upsurge in inflation could force central bankers to hike interest rates and plunge the world into a new recession.
Moreover, the longer this conflict drags on, the greater the lasting damage from this new oil supply shock. Not good.
And yet, it is always darkest before dawn.
The chart below suggests why we could see both sides reach some sort of compromise as early as next week.
Oil Price Inflexion Points
My timing model isn’t exclusively designed for crypto. It can forecast any financial asset or commodity. All it needs is a price chart.
And when I plug oil into the model instead of crypto, it revealed three key turning points …
- Jan. 7, 2026: This is when oil’s current rally began.
- Feb. 28, 2026: The day the Iran War started.
- March 26, 2026: The only date that hasn’t come to pass yet.
To be clear, my model identifies turning points, not specific prices. Theoretically, we could see March 26 manifest as a peak at, say, $150 a barrel.
But that's unlikely. Because oil has already been rallying for 20 days. And further gains would simply extend a trend already well underway.
In addition, a March 26 turning point for crude rhymes nicely with crypto’s market cycles.
The likeliest outlook is that March 26 will be a local top of some significance. I say "some" because my model suggests this conflict will drag on for quite some time. That would keep oil well-bid.
But I digress.
Where oil goes from here matters enormously because strength in crude automatically translates into weakness in crypto. If March 26 proves to be the reversal I expect, it could indicate the final stages of this leg up in oil prices.
That would clear the way for Bitcoin and other crypto assets to show real strength.
So, the path of least resistance, at least for now, is this: We are in the final stages of this impasse around the Strait of Hormuz.
Afterwards, the weeks leading up to April 20 look mostly positive.
To see firsthand how I plan to navigate this window, and which coins my Crypto Timing Model says are good to enter now, click here.
Best,
Juan Villaverde
