Qatar Loses LNG Crown: This U.S. Stock Set to Take Over
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Key Takeaways
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| By Jim Nelson Reviewed by: Dawn Pennington |
The Middle East just lost control of an all-important fuel — liquefied natural gas, or LNG.
And one U.S. company is set to inherit this prize.
Today, I’ll show you three charts pointing to how to profit from this change in control.
After months of failing to fulfill supply contracts, the world’s largest exporter of LNG just lost its first contract. It could be the first of many.
Today, Poland’s state-owned energy company, Orlen, canceled a 1-million-metric-ton contract with QatarEnergy.
At the start of the year, QatarEnergy supplied 20% of the entire world’s LNG. The war changed that. And possibly for good.
You might be wondering: Why now? Isn’t the Strait of Hormuz open?
It’s not. I’ll show you that in a moment.
And even if the fighting isn’t renewed, it could be years before it really is.
Though, you might not expect that if you read headlines these days.
On Monday, Reuters reported that Hormuz traffic just hit a peak in October:
That’s true. LNG traffic is higher than it was since the start of the war. But that traffic isn’t coming from the region … just passing through.
And it is still nowhere near where it was before the conflict began.
Here’s the real picture of what’s happening in the Strait:
This first chart shows just how little LNG is originating from the Middle East, the region much of the world relied on before the war.
Qatar, once the world’s leader in LNG exports, is stuck. For regions that rely on importing LNG, this has a serious impact.
Asia is completely dependent on imported LNG. The region imported 168.7 million tons in 2025.
Europe is increasingly more reliant on imports, too.
Last year it took in 33% more LNG than the year prior, double its imports from 2021.
And due to both sanctions and the increase in attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, Europe gets no relief from that market.
Since the start of the Ukraine-Russia War, Russian natural gas exports have collapsed:
Just this morning, Sean Brodrick covered the demand side of this equation.
He wrote:
“AI has an enormous appetite for electricity. And natural gas is increasingly being called upon to feed it.
“[This] could be one of the biggest natural gas demand booms in American history.”
The only issue is that the U.S. has its own natural gas. Europe doesn’t.
You can see what that means for prices in each region:
Despite the war, natural gas prices have actually come down this year in the U.S.
The exact opposite is happening in Europe.
And now with countries like Poland giving up on the supply actually coming back online, they will have to turn to the U.S. LNG market.
That gives one company a premier opportunity to replace QatarEnergy as the largest supplier of LNG in the world …
In fact, QatarEnergy is now buying LNG from this U.S. giant.
This Weiss ‘Buy’ Now Supplies the ‘Suppliers’
Cheniere Energy (LNG, “B-”) is the largest LNG exporter in the U.S.
It is expanding its capacity to over 75 million tons per year by the end of the decade.
Part of that new capacity will go to supplying QatarEnergy through 2054.
The writing is on the wall.
Not only is the former exporting giant not able to keep up with its own contracts to supply Europe. It is now buying LNG from Cheniere.
And it expects to need that replacement supply for decades.
That’s not the only long-term deal the company with the perfect ticker symbol just signed.
A month before the QatarEnergy deal, Cheniere locked in terms with Brazilian state-owned Petrobras to supply LNG for the next 22 years.
The supply maps have officially changed. Once dominant, the Middle East just handed over the keys to Cheniere.
And Weiss Ratings says it’s a “Buy.”
While the headlines still claim victory over a “return to shipping” through the Strait, you can pick up the actual victor right here in the U.S.
Sincerely,
Jim Nelson
