Big-Foot Crypto Investors Aren’t Waiting for Bitcoin to Bottom
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| By Marija Matic |
The macro tape reads like a list of reasons to sell.
- The Iran war is back in the headlines …
- The "Memorandum of Understanding" has collapsed, sending the average U.S. gas price has climbed back above $4.00 a gallon.
- South Korea's KOSPI has fallen into a bear market, down 20%-30% from its June all-time high (dragged lower by a global unwind in AI semiconductor names).
- The Nasdaq 100 shed more than 4% last week.
By every reasonable measure, this is a risk-off market.
And yet, Bitcoin (BTC, “B+”) closed the week at its highest level in five weeks! It also held above its 200-week moving average for the third week running — the flows behind it stayed supportive while risk assets around it sold.
That gap between the macro backdrop and the BTC price action is what's worth paying attention to right now.
The Divergence Under the Surface
One cohort is heading for the exits while the other builds a position. Here’s the important part: The wallets doing the buying here tend to be the ones that move early.
Over the past 60 days, mid-sized holders sold 77,800 BTC. Over the same window, whales accumulated 66,700 BTC, according to Cointelegraph:
That accumulation lines up with a timing thesis making the rounds.
If you’ve read Juan Villaverde’s updates, you’ll know he tracks the cycles found within each market. And right now, his model is hunting for the bottom of our current cycle.
Whales are aware we’re in this “bottoming period.” Even without Juan’s Crypto Timing Model, they know based on prior cycles that we’re likely to get that low within this period.
So, they may not be able to pinpoint the exact date. But like in years before, whales are loading up now that we’re close enough. Their typical understanding is that the only mistake you can make is to wait for the perfect time to enter.
That accumulation is already showing up in the tape.
Bitcoin is up 9.89% so far this July. That means its already ahead of its 6.33% average Q3 return.
Ethereum (ETH, “B+”) did better still, gaining 18.8%.
The ETF tape backs it up: ETH spot funds pulled in $105 million last week and Bitcoin spot funds $75.67 million.
Ethereum's strength has at least one clear sponsor: BitMine, the largest ETH digital asset treasury company. It added 7,430 ETH last week and now holds 5.78 million.
That’s close to 4.8% of the entire supply!
With 85% of that staked, most of the stack sits off the market entirely. That tightens the float the rest of the market trades against. According to the company, BitMine is still adding. Its total crypto, cash and other investments have reached $11.5 billion.
Smaller inflows were also seen into Solana (SOL, “B-”) and XRP (XRP, “C+”) products. And Hyperliquid (HYPE, “D+”) was the surprising outlier, bleeding $7.26 million.
Where The Flows Get Complicated
Not every current flows in one direction.
Binance and Bybit saw a combined $2.3 billion in stablecoin outflows over the past thirty days — about $1.55 billion from Binance and $786 million from Bybit, per CryptoQuant.
Some of that likely reflects European users migrating as the MiCA transition window finally closed on July 1.1 Now, all crypto platforms operating in the EU must obtain a MiCA license. And one asset that did not get approval is Tether (USDT)2, the largest stablecoin in circulation.
So, some of these stablecoin outflows reflect balances moving into self-custody wallets or on-chain yield opportunities. But for the others the destination isn't confirmed. Which is reason enough to hold the read loosely.
Further muddying the waters is a broader pattern worth flagging: The S&P 500's six-month implied correlation has fallen to 0.15, an all-time low.
In short, stocks are trading on their own fundamentals instead of moving as one index, with a handful of mega-caps doing most of the heavy lifting.
The same fragmentation is turning up in crypto: Market dominance, category and single-coin performance are pulling apart.
In an environment this divergent, the index tells you less than it used to. Which means asset selection starts to matter more than direction.
The Levels That Matter
On the chart, the setup is constructive, but uncertain.
Support at $58,000 is the line in the sand for the long-term outlook. It’s held so far, which means the path opens toward $67,000, is open. But if we lose it on a weekly close, $49,000 comes back into view.
At least, until we get confirmation the low is in. Once that comes, it’s incredibly unlikely that prices will dip below $58,000.
That said, this is still the relatively boring phase. And there may be one more shakeout lower before it resolves, as Juan broke down for you on Friday.
Nearer term, liquidity continues to build around $66,000. So, that’s the most obvious short-term magnet if buyers keep control.
Whether or not they will is the question. But the calendar this week will give prices plenty to react to as earnings season is fully underway.
Expected this week are …
- Tuesday: ADP employment numbers,
- Wednesday: Tesla and Alphabet earnings,
- Thursday: Jobless claims and Intel earnings,
- Friday: S&P Global manufacturing PMI and new home sales.
In a tape this concentrated, a single mega-cap print can set the tone for the week.
The Takeaway
Here's where it stands: The headlines are still bad. On-chain data is mixed. And the mid-tier holder is still dumping.
But the biggest wallets are buying anyway.
Despite the chaos, this is what a bottoming period typically looks like from the inside. Which is why so few people catch them.
Instead, you may want to consider taking a page from the whales’ playbook. They’re not trying to nail the exact low. They're averaging in through the weakness to slowly build a position.
None of this proves the bottom is in. But smart money rarely accumulates without a reason. It’s just that the reason usually shows up in the price later.
Best,
Marija Matić
P.S. This “close enough” approach to finding the bottom is a solid strategy for HODLers and long-term investors. And I’ve explained to my Crypto Yield Hunter members how it can work for our approach, too.
But if you want to narrow the window of error in your strategy, I encourage you to click here to learn more about Juan Villaverde’s Crypto Timing Model.
It’s accurately called the long-term-cycle low in the past three cycles. And in this briefing, Juan explains exactly how he uses it to help his members make the most of their crypto positions.
2https://ffnews.com/news/okx-europe-launches-mica-compliant-conversion-tool-for-usdt-holders
