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| By Marija Matic |
The next spot Bitcoin (BTC, “A-”) ETF approval opportunity should finally hit this Wednesday.
Expectations are running high. But the decision may come any minute this week.
Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has raised his confidence of a Bitcoin ETF approval to 95%.
Even Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler posted this mysterious xeet today.
The speculation is that that he might not have done so if the approval weren't imminent.
Moreover, today marked the deadline for submitting S-1s forms — the initial registration form for new securities. The SEC is slated to vote on the exchange filings, and if both the initial registration forms and exchange filings are approved, ETF trading could commence as early as the following day.
As per current information, BlackRock (BLK) anticipates approval from the SEC for its new Bitcoin spot ETF on Wednesday,
BlackRock, ARK Invest/21Shares, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity and Valkyrie all filed amended S-1 forms today.
These filings unveil previously undisclosed sponsor fees alongside their applications. Notably, both BlackRock and ARK have significantly reduced their Bitcoin ETF fees. This signals that both firms believe the approval will spark the onset of a competitive market.
Bitwise has set the bar with the lowest long-term fee at 0.24%, intensifying the ongoing fee war.
In contrast, Grayscale stands out with the highest fees at 1.5%. This marks a surprising divergence from the trend toward lower fees among competitors.
Naturally, the spotlight so far this week is firmly on Bitcoin's price action. Currently, it's challenging an overhead resistance level. A successful breakthrough could propel it swiftly to the next threshold.
This four-hour chart shows Bitcoin made a new push at breaking the $44,700 level today, reaching $47,000 at the time of writing:
This tells me BTC is headed for $48,000 and even higher targets such as $53,000.
In a noteworthy first, Bitcoin has just formed a “golden cross” on its weekly chart. A golden cross is an exceedingly bullish signal.
Specifically, the 50-week moving average has crossed above the 200-week moving average for the first time in history. You can see this tracked below, and the unique pattern indicates that a significant positive trend could be ahead:
Altcoins, unfortunately, have suffered amid the surge in Bitcoin dominance.
Bitcoin's market cap dominance has steadily climbed over the past few months, surging from 38.9% in September to now encompassing over 54.5% of the total crypto market capitalization.
This implies that, on average, investors would have fared better holding BTC rather than altcoins in recent months.
As observed in the chart above, Bitcoin's market cap dominance has just broken above a resistance level. If it successfully tests it, we can anticipate a strong surge in Bitcoin's price.
This could prompt even the most promising altcoins to take a breather, allowing Bitcoin to take the forefront.
Nevertheless, it's important to note exceptions where select altcoins experienced incredible surges.
This is why I suggest you sign up for Juan’s Crypto Convergence briefing tomorrow at 2 p.m. Eastern.
Choosing the wrong crypto investments could mean you miss out on the amazing profit opportunity the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could bring. And according to Juan, it’s only one of three big events set to converge in 2024.
That means you could be missing out on even bigger opportunities.
Tomorrow is the last day before we may get an ETF approval. And in his free online briefing, Juan will reveal the names of three altcoins he believes folks should own ahead of time.
Just save your seat and tune in tomorrow afternoon for the details.
Notable News, Notes & Xeets
- VanEck pledges 5% of spot BTC ETF profits to BTC core developers.
- Japan’s e-commerce giant Mercari plans to accept BTC payments.
- Celsius will unstake existing ETH holdings in the next few days to ensure timely distributions to creditors. Eligible creditors will receive in-kind distributions of BTC and ETH as outlined in the approved plan.
- El Salvador enacts a law offering citizenship to foreigners investing in Bitcoin, highlighting the country's continued embrace of digital currency.
What’s Next
Digital asset investment products saw inflows totaling $151 million in the first week of 2024, bringing the total inflows since the Grayscale vs. SEC lawsuit to $2.3 billion.
This means institutional traders are bullish on the outcome of the spot ETF decision.
Despite the anticipation and positive indicators, I’m still going to urge caution. Don’t get caught up in the excitement and allow it to overshadow good judgement and common sense precautions, especially if you have or are looking to trade open margin and futures positions.
These include never investing more than you’re willing to lose, researching the asset you’re investing in diligently — which our Weiss crypto ratings can help with — and, of course, maintaining custody of your own crypto.
The impending decision is expected to trigger extreme volatility in the market. And while we all want to be swept away in volatility to the upside, no one can control the ways the market can react to this landmark event.
The week holds immense potential to reshape the crypto landscape, and investors eagerly await the outcome. If the decision is positive, I assume the BTC price later this week should depend on the imminent demand for this new financial product.
Best,
Marija
