Binance Invests $100M in Circle. Here's Why Nilus Mattive Still Isn't Impressed.

By Dawn Pennington

Binance just bought a stake in Circle Internet Group (CRCL). Nilus Mattive isn't celebrating.

Circle disclosed in an SEC filing Tuesday that Binance bought roughly 1.24 million shares of Circle stock — about $100 million worth — at a 5% discount to market price. 

Alongside the investment, the two companies signed a new five-year agreement: Binance will actively promote USDC, Circle's stablecoin, on its platform.

Circle shares jumped on the news, climbing from the mid-$80s into the mid-$90s.

Nilus Sees a Bigger Story

We checked in with Nilus, who's followed Circle closely since its IPO. His current read:

“Where I last officially left it was that Circle was actually moderately interesting back when it was in the $50 or $60 range, but I was agnostic overall.”

Related story: Why I’m Betting Against This Crypto IPO

Circle is trading around $95 today — well above the range where Nilus said the stock started looking interesting.

But his skepticism isn't really about Circle's price. It's about what deals like this one represent. 

Nilus has said for a while now that he thinks we're in the biggest market bubble he's ever seen — and to him, Circle is a symptom of it, not a special case. 

A company buying its way into distribution deals with bigger platforms, at a discount, to keep growth numbers moving, is exactly the kind of thing that shows up late in a cycle like this one, not the kind of thing that marks a new beginning.

Related story: Will Circle (CRCL) Be Unbroken?

The Ferrari Fund Update

At the 2026 Weiss Investment Summit, Nilus told the room about something he calls his “Ferrari IRA” — a handful of tiny, overlooked microcap stocks with enough long-term upside that if even one or two pay off the way he expects, he'll have enough sitting in that account to buy himself a Ferrari.

Naturally, we asked whether his Circle put options — the bearish bet he placed back in July 2025, which turned profitable as the stock fell 61% by December — went into the Ferrari fund.

His answer:

“It's in the gas money fund.”

Translation: profitable, but nowhere near the kind of asymmetric bet he's actually hunting for. 

Betting against an overpriced IPO and finding a genuine ground-floor microcap are two very different games — and Nilus plays both.

Want More Ideas Like the Ferrari IRA?

Nilus doesn't share his full list of small, overlooked opportunities in the daily newsletter.

Some of his best ideas get unveiled live at the annual Weiss Investment Summit.

The 2026 Summit may be behind us, but we’re already looking ahead to 2027 — and the next round of small-stock, big-upside ideas.

Come back soon for more details on the 2027 Weiss Investment Summit.

To your health and wealth,

Dawn