Bitcoin Bearishness Is Nothing More Than a House of Cards

by Juan Villaverde
By Juan Villaverde

This week, Bitcoin (BTC, “A”) plummeted through the critical $60,000 support barrier with conviction. And it happened before the U.S. market opened — a classic sign of panic.

But any bearish sentiment you see from this is nothing more than a paper-thin house of cards. 

Our team anticipated this downside action. How? By remembering past Bitcoin halvings.

Dr. Bruce Ng laid out the price action pattern, which included a correction right around the time of the halving and a consolidation phase after.

Beth Canova pointed out that even a correction to $50,700 would still keep our long-term bullish outlook intact, and that investors should prepare for additional downside volatility.

That’s because previous corrections saw price dips between 20% and 40%. And going into the halving this time, BTC was only about 13% from its all-time high.

That was very shallow, especially with my Crypto Timing Model expecting a long-term cycle low in May.

The logical conclusion? Bitcoin still had further to fall.

And sure enough, it has.

So, in truth, the only notable aspect of this correction … was the reaction from the wider crypto community! As Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, weak hands were shattered, transforming confidence into fear for the future.

It’s what happens in every crypto cycle.

In fact, it’s almost comical how predictably these cycles unfold.

So, here’s what you should keep in mind: No, we’re not on the brink of these catastrophic scenarios. The sky isn’t falling, and there isn’t a major crisis looming this year.

What we’re seeing right now is a healthy crypto cycle just doing its thing.

However, we should appreciate this fresh wave of worry and fear: It’s the foundation on which market bottoms are built. By shaking out weak hands, Bitcoin ensures it’ll start the next bull market rally from a strong support level.

So if you’re feeling anxious now, try to see the bigger picture. This market is among the most bullish I’ve seen as we entered the Bitcoin halving.

Consider that Bitcoin not only reached but surpassed its previous all-time high … before the halving even occurred! That is a stark contrast to past halvings, when BTC traded well below its peak:

  • In May 2020, Bitcoin was at about $8,500, over 50% down from its peak of $19,000.
  • In July 2016, it was around $650, over 40% below its high of $1,160.
  • In November 2012, it hovered at $12, more than 60% under its top of $32.
  • In 2024, Bitcoin traded at $64,000 at the time of the halving, roughly 13% off its recent new high of $74,000.

This robust performance signals a bull market that could be one of the strongest ever for crypto.

Currently, Bitcoin is down just over 20% in about 50 days — an inconsequential dip in a market poised for recovery.

This skepticism, even among die-hard crypto enthusiasts, ensures that when the market does hit bottom and turns around, there will be ample capital on the sidelines, ready to re-enter as Bitcoin resumes its upward trajectory.

And the best part? This correction is nearly over.

Remember I said my Crypto Timing Model expects a long-term low to hit in May. And when it does, Bitcoin will be ready to prepare for its next rally. And I expect it to bring the broad market with it when that happens.

So, don’t fall for the near-term bearish sentiment. It’s nothing but fearmongering.

Instead, long-term investors should look at this correction as a buying opportunity. We may not see prices like this for a while once the next phase of the bull market starts.

Best,

Juan Villaverde

About the Editor

When econometrician and pro trader Juan M. Villaverde first applied his algorithms to Bitcoin years ago, he discovered a regular cyclical pattern. And he has since used it to build the world’s first crypto timing model based on cycles. Thanks to his analysis, the Weiss Ratings team has accurately picked the top and bottom of major crypto booms and busts.

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