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| By Sam Blumenfeld |
For the past two weeks, Bitcoin (BTC, Tech/Adoption Grade "A-") and the broader crypto market have been relatively stable.
Volume tends to decrease during the holidays, so trading could remain relatively unexciting until the new year ... unless a significant market development occurs.
Despite stocks taking a tumble during the final trading hours of 2022, crypto mostly continued holding steady.
Bitcoin was down less than a percentage point during today's trading as it looks to establish a new bear market floor. It's currently hovering around $16,500.
The market leader's trading direction remains neutral for now. But it would be a negative development if it fell below the bottom of its established trading range between $15,500 and $25,000.
Bitcoin hasn't overtaken its 21-day moving average since falling below it on Dec. 16, but it tested it 10 days ago.
The short-term momentum indicator is less important than maintaining a neutral trading direction. But it would be helpful if the market leader could distance itself from the lower end of its recent trading range.
Here's Bitcoin's price in U.S. dollars via Coinbase (COIN):
Ethereum (ETH, Tech/Adoption Grade "B") has largely mirrored Bitcoin's performance over the past two weeks. It's mostly flat over the past week and month, and it continues trading near its pre-FTX-meltdown prices.
Ethereum's weekly, monthly and yearly performances are in line with Bitcoin's. However, it has outperformed the market leader with a 12% gain over the past six months versus the latter's 14% drawdown.
Like Bitcoin, Ethereum hasn't overtaken its 21-day moving average since Dec. 16.
Even so, it trades a bit higher than it did two weeks ago. It still sits right around the $1,200 mark, which is significantly higher than its bear market low of $880.
ETH's relative strength could bring additional stability for altcoins that mirror its price action.
Here's Ethereum's price in U.S. dollars via Coinbase:
Notable News, Notes & Ratings
Eight cryptocurrencies are currently "Buy"-rated on Weiss Ratings, meaning they have ratings of "B-" or better.
1. Bitcoin (BTC, Overall Grade "B")
2. ChainLink (LINK, Overall Grade "B")
3. OKB (OKB, Overall Grade "B")
4. Polygon (MATIC, Overall Grade "B")
5. Cardano (ADA, Overall Grade "B-")
6. Ethereum (ETH, Overall Grade "B-")
7. LiteCoin (LTC, Overall Grade "B-")
8. Uniswap (UNI, Overall Grade "B-")
Elsewhere in the crypto-verse …
- FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is considered likely to enter a plea deal when he appears in a federal court next week in New York. The news comes after reports of two former associates working with prosecutors. Bankman-Fried was released on $250 million bail last week in the largest-ever bond deal.
- MicroStrategy Executive Chair Michael Saylor tweeted that the company increased its Bitcoin stockpile by about 2,500 BTC. MicroStrategy now holds approximately 132,500 BTC that it acquired for $4 billion at an average cost of $30,397 per BTC.
- Fiji elected a pro-Bitcoin prime minister, which could have a positive impact on adoption for the country. Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka took office on Dec. 24, and he's already discussed the possibility of making Bitcoin legal tender next year through two potential bills.
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's (GBTC) discount to its net asset value widened to a record 49%. Meanwhile, Grayscale Ethereum Trust's (ETHE) discount to its NAV increased to a record 60%.
What's Next
Crypto continues fighting negative sentiment coming from inflation, fears of a recession and expectations for higher interest rates.
Thursday's jobless claims data showed that the labor market could be showing signs of weakening, which may be something the Fed has been waiting on.
The crypto market didn't see a significant boost right away. But it's in line to benefit if the Fed decides to pivot when the labor market cools off further.
Fed officials spooked the market when they called for a 5.1% terminal rate — or peak interest rate — earlier this month. But it will likely bode well for risk assets including crypto if central bankers decide to end the hikes before the target interest rate hits 5%.
Current macroeconomic challenges make it more difficult to ignite the next bull market. But it's only a matter of time before institutional and government adoption light the fuse.
I look forward to what 2023 has in store for cryptos. And the Weiss Crypto Team and I look forward to letting you know about the best opportunities for near- and longer-term profit.
Till then, best wishes for the New Year!
Best,
Sam
