Crypto’s Crash Clears the Way to New Highs

By Juan Villaverde

Back in June, I revealed the unique pattern I noticed between my model and leading headlines …

Whenever my Crypto Timing Model marks a critical high or low, a macroeconomic event has cemented it.

So, I wasn’t exactly surprised to see the resurgence of the tariff war ignite another epic market meltdown just before Oct. 17.

It’s almost a repeat of what we saw on April 7.

That’s when President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff proclamation triggered a stomach-churning crash.

Indeed, April 7 remains Bitcoin’s (BTC, “A-”) last 320-day-cycle low.

But then, Trump paused his decision. Markets breathed a sigh of relief, and the uptrend was back in full swing.

Fast forward to the present.

The Oct. 10 crash was truly dramatic. More than $19 billion wiped out in 24 hours. Which, in nominal terms, made it crypto’s worst bloodbath ever.

(You can read my colleague Marija Matić’s excellent post-mortem on the crash here for all the nitty-gritty details.)

But in percentage terms, this crash doesn’t even crack the five worst I’ve been through. I saw far deeper Bitcoin sell-offs in 2020 or 2021. Not to mention the early days of 2010-2014.

The reason Oct. 10 ranks as “the worst in history” has more to do with participation than magnitude.

There simply have never been more people involved in crypto markets than there are today.

Seven Days Early

You probably noticed that the Oct. 10 crash came a week ahead of the mid-October inflection point specified by my Crypto Timing Model.

That was expected to hit on Oct. 17.

That’s OK. In fact, it’s to be expected.

Oct. 17 remains a key date. It actually should be the first day prices rally sharply from a major low — not the worst point of the sell-off.

That’s why I’ve been hammering home the importance of your readiness ahead of this date.

History backs up my analysis.

For example, the two most dramatic lows my model has forecast over the two years were Aug. 6, 2024, and April 7, 2025. Both times, Bitcoin fell sharply into these dates … and began the first real rally on the forecast date.

• For example, the April 7 forecast materialized two days later, (April 9), when Bitcoin rallied nearly 10% after months of decline.

• Same with the Aug. 6 forecast. The actual low came a day earlier (Aug. 5) — when Bitcoin dipped to $50,000 after falling from $70,000 the week before. Then came a 12% rally on Aug. 8, confirming the signal.

So, rest assured: The worst is behind us. We just went through it.

But don’t be flummoxed if crypto doesn’t start its next uptrend exactly on Oct. 17. There’s always some wiggle room. So, it might take a few more days to fully manifest. Or maybe by the time you read this, it’s already begun.

Either way, expect a significant low to form soon, likely on the back of this tariff threat turning out to be just that — a threat.

Just like what happened six months ago.

By this time next week, it should be clear that Bitcoin has established a final low.

Which means the stage will be set for Bitcoin’s Q4 rally. And my technical analysis suggests BTC can hit new highs near $135,000 by December.

And remember: Where Bitcoin goes, the rest of the market will follow.

To learn how I plan to navigate this rally — and which assets I think could outperform BTC — click here. 

Best,

Juan Villaverde