Elizabeth Warren Is About to Run the Committee That Writes Crypto's Rules
 |
| By Dawn Pennington Reviewed by: Jim Nelson |
If you've been holding crypto and waiting for Washington to finally write clear rules, this week changed your math.
Crypto's top super PAC, Fairshake, committed $30 million to keep Sherrod Brown out of the Senate.
Brown won anyway. And poll-watchers speculate he could potentially chair the Senate Agriculture Committee, which has jurisdiction over digital assets.
Meanwhile, the Banking Committee gavel he once held is now expected to go to someone the industry likes even less.
Elizabeth Warren is set to chair the Senate Banking Committee when the new Congress starts in January.
Political developments are not investment signals.
But while crypto wasn’t on the ballot, it may certainly be on the 120th Congress’ legislative menu.
The Senator Who Built an 'Anti-Crypto Army'
Democrats won control of the Senate on Tuesday. That puts them in position to take control of its committees.
The Wall Street Journal reports Warren, now the committee's top Democrat, is expected to take Banking. Nothing is final until Senate leaders set the new lineup.
But when it comes to crypto, Warren has never hidden where she stands.
In 2023, she embraced a Politico description of her as "building an anti-crypto army" for her re-election run.
She has said digital assets help "rogue nations, oligarchs, drug lords and human traffickers" move dirty money.
At May's committee vote on crypto's big market-structure bill, the CLARITY Act, she didn't soften it.
Related story: Clarity Act Vote Fails 50-49 Ahead of Fed Rate Decision, House Bitcoin Bill
Warren said the bill "would blow a hole in our securities laws that have protected investors since 1929."
She also said it "declares open season on defrauding American consumers who use crypto."
And she tied it to the White House. She said President Trump and his family have made "a staggering $1.4 billion in gains from crypto deals alone."
"No President — and no one in Congress — should be allowed to profit from crypto," she said.
She brought 44 amendments to that markup. None passed.
Related story: Trump Agrees to Crypto Ethics Rules Ahead of Senate Vote
Crypto's backers see it differently.
They argue the bill finally tells companies which regulator they answer to — and that years without rules pushed builders and jobs overseas.
Follow the Money in Washington
Here's where it gets interesting.
The industry has spent years making friends on this exact committee. Some of that money is direct. Most of it isn't.
Outside spending by crypto super PACs (money spent to help elect them):
- Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio): $40.1 million from Defend American Jobs, a Fairshake affiliate, in 2024 — the race that unseated Brown.
- Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.): About $10 million from Fairshake's network in 2024.
- Jim Banks (R-Ind.): $3 million from Defend American Jobs in 2024.
- Mike Rounds (R-S.D.): $400,000 in support this cycle.
Direct checks from crypto executives (2025–’26 cycle, FEC filings through mid-March):
- Mark Warner (D-Va.): About $57,000 from leaders at Coinbase, Ripple and Kraken.
- Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.): $26,000 from Andreessen Horowitz partners.
- Tim Scott (R-S.C.): the current chair: $21,000 from Coinbase executives, including CEO Brian Armstrong.
- Bernie Moreno: About $15,900 from Ripple executives.
- Dave McCormick (R-Pa.): $2,900 from Coinbase's president.
Behind it all sits a giant war chest. Fairshake and its affiliates had raised more than $193 million for this cycle by January.
Coinbase (COIN, “D+”) alone put in $52.5 million, and Ripple Labs $48 million.
Think about that for a moment.
That money helped move the bill through committee. In May, CLARITY cleared Banking 15–9, with two Democrats — Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks — joining all 13 Republicans.
But it couldn't get the bill across the floor. On Sept. 15, it fell 49–50, well short of the 60 votes it needed.
Related story: GENIUS and CLARITY on Capitol Hill
The Clock Runs Out Jan. 3
That's the real deadline.
Every bill that hasn't passed dies when this Congress ends on Jan. 3. After that, CLARITY would have to start over — in a Senate where Warren has substantial control over the agenda.
That leaves a short lame-duck window. Republicans still run the Senate until then.
Prediction markets aren't optimistic about CLARITY's chances, either.
On Myriad, a blockchain-based prediction platform, traders now put the odds of the bill becoming law by year-end at just 2.5%.
That's a steep decline from the roughly 20% odds seen in August.
And a chairwoman doesn't just block bills. Subject to committee rules and authorizations, she can call hearings, send subpoenas and decide who testifies.
The Journal reports her likely targets: insider trading on prediction markets, consumer protection at crypto firms, and the Trump family's crypto businesses.
She has already asked regulators to pause a bank charter for World Liberty Financial (WLFI, “D”), the Trump-linked crypto company.
So … crypto's lobbying machine bought a lot of friends. It just doesn't get to pick the chair.
Crypto Cycles Don't Take Orders from Congress
Politics makes headlines. Cycles make prices.
That's how our crypto cycle expert, Juan Villaverde, sees it.
His Crypto Timing Model tracks Bitcoin's repeating cycles. He says it "has not missed a single date" so far this year.
Here's his map for the months ahead:
- Now through Nov. 12: A short-term low forms.
- Into early December: A modest, month-long bounce, topping out around Dec. 2.
- Dec. 24 to Jan. 13: A bigger low that ends a 320-day cycle. Juan calls it the buying opportunity to watch.
Think about that for a moment.
That window opens just as the new Congress is sworn in and Warren picks up the gavel.
Juan treated the biggest heist in history the same way. He argued Bitcoin (BTC, “B+”) was already holding support before Binance got hit. The hack didn't move his dates.
Warren can call hearings. She can send subpoenas. She can stall a bill.
But even crypto's toughest critic can't change the cycles.
So don't let scary headlines from Washington shake you out at the wrong time.
If Juan's map holds, the turn into 2027 is a window to buy Bitcoin, not sell it.
Related story: Ignore the Binance Shock: Bitcoin's Next Rally May Be Just Days Away
The Bottom Line
Crypto spent $30 million to keep one critic away from the gavel.
It won the battle in 2024. It lost the calendar in 2026.
Now the industry has 58 days to get its bill done — or start over with Elizabeth Warren holding the pen.
But Bitcoin runs on a different calendar.
And Juan's cycles say its next big buying window opens the same week she takes the gavel.
To your health and wealth,
Dawn Pennington
Editorial Director
P.S. No matter what rules come out of Washington, Bitcoin still marches to its own internal beat. And that’s a rhythm Juan Villaverde has trained his Crypto Timing Model to follow.
Juan’s model called every significant reversal this year. It also identified the past three bear market bottoms, almost to the day.
Now, his model is signaling another potentially significant opportunity ahead.
And at his special crypto briefing on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 2 p.m. Eastern, Juan plans to reveal when he intends to act and which coins are on his radar.
His insights could help you better navigate the next phase of the crypto market. And the briefing is free to attend.
