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| By Marija Matic |
April has been good to Bitcoin (BTC, “A-”).
But a glance at just the daily price action may not paint a full picture of how nice a run BTC has had over the past 30 days.
And this is a time when taking a step back and recognizing the forest — not just the trees — can help you reorient.
We’ve seen a nice, methodical grind from $68,200 to $79,500 over the course of April, marked by higher lows and higher highs.
Bitcoin price has respected an ascending channel on the 4H for the entire month …
There were no strong panic moves and no euphoria, despite the tricky geopolitical backdrop. The market simply continued to make its way higher.
All while most people were still arguing about whether the bottom was in.
Now, BTC’s price is consolidating around $77,000, after sweeping the February highs.
Strategy (MSTR), meanwhile, added 3,273 BTC last week at $77,906, bringing its total to 818,334 coins.
Digital asset investment products saw $1.2 billion in inflows in the fourth consecutive positive week, with Bitcoin leading at $933 million.
Year-to-date flows now stand near $4 billion.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs separately logged nine consecutive sessions of net inflows totaling $2.1 billion between April 14–24, That’s the longest unbroken streak since October 2024.
Strategy alone has bought 10x more Bitcoin than all ETFs combined in 2026. Still, the institutional bid is broad, and it's been consistent.
On the other side, shorts have been paying negative funding rates. And they're still at it, while betting the $80,000 level holds as resistance.
This is a lot of info. So, let’s take a moment to see …
Where Things Actually Stand
The math for staying short got worse throughout April. And the $80,000–$82,000 range is a minefield loaded with short liquidations.
If price pushes through resistance, the move will feed itself and can accelerate upward momentum.
But here’s a key detail: April’s expansion has been driven by derivatives, not spot.
In other words, while open interest is strong, spot demand has lagged. And it needs to catch up for the pattern to break.
So for now, $83,000 is the level to watch on the upside.
The channel has been orderly until today, so a retest of this upper band is possible. A clean break above there could trigger the liquidation cascade and put the higher $80,000s within reach.
But if the channel breaks down, we are going to see the formation of a new structure.
In other words, $77,100 on the downside is what will need to hold to keep the April price action intact.
If we lose that, then the $72K–74K range will be where we’ll find support. Which is still nothing major, but it does prolong the momentum.
Ethereum Is Doing Something Odd
While Bitcoin dominates the tape, Ethereum (ETH, “B+”) is showing a sort of bullish divergence. And it’s worth noting.
ETH’s 100-day moving average of active addresses just hit an all-time high of 587,000.
The interesting point here is that this milestone was hit … while ETH’s price action has been indecisive.
Active addresses and price have tracked each other closely over Ethereum's history. Which means the gap between surging network activity and flat price is the kind of thing that tends to close eventually.
Well, we’re seeing the Ethereum network get busier, but the price hasn't followed yet.
This is exactly the kind of setup that tends to attract the patient money.
Indeed, ETH pulled $192 million in inflows last week. That’s its third positive week in a row. But when it comes to patient money, no one is more patient than Bitmine (BMNR).
The company added 101,901 ETH last week, bringing its total holding to 5.08 million tokens.
That’s roughly 4.2% of ETH’s total supply!
And most is currently staked for ~$264 million in annualized revenue.
What’s Next
The week ahead will be loud on the macro side, with insight from …
- The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting
- U.S. Q1 2026 GDP
- Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
- And the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
All expected to land within days of one another.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be surprises.
On the regulatory front, the CLARITY Act may come to a vote in May. Galaxy's research head gives it 50/50 odds, with a warning that the window closes if it doesn't advance by mid-May.
Whether it passes or stalls, the timing will likely move prices either way.
Which is why the levels I highlighted earlier are so important to keep in mind.
Because savvy traders will know what they mean. And they’ll have their targets and stops set ahead of time. Just in case any headlines move the needle substantially.
Remember …
- Baseline is now near $77,100.
- A confident push above $83,000 will break the current range structure.
- And crossing $100,000 would kill the bear narrative entirely.
In fact, seeing $100,000 now would mean a new higher high that invalidates every bearish retest scenario, followed by a hunt for a higher low at what was previously resistance.
To be clear, a run to $100,000 isn’t guaranteed. In fact, cycles expert Juan Villaverde has $85,000 as the rough ceiling for this rally, with May 9 as the high his model is tracking.
But it also isn’t off the table. Especially if ETF demand, sovereign accumulation and corporate treasury plays continue to buy and absorb supply.
Just as they did all throughout April … without forcing legacy holders to sell.
Time will tell which possibility plays out.
In the meantime, you’ll want to plan the best response for your portfolio for each potential outcome.
One way to do that? With Juan’s Crypto Timing Model, which has accurately called the highs and lows of the past three long-term crypto cycles.
You can learn about how it works here.
Best,
Marija Matić
