Holiday shopping is in full swing.
Online sales alone on Black Friday netted a record-setting $9.12 billion.
The National Retail Federation expects the holiday sales season to rack up $960 billion, which would make 2022 the third best holiday season over the last 20 years!
With consumer spending on a tear, it's a signal that the U.S. economy is going strong. But how strong and for how long?
Analyst Nilus Mattive defines this period as economic limbo, and says investors should approach this last month of the year with caution:
The economy will look good in the short term because of all this spending, but I still question whether it's blue skies from here. I don't think it will be.
Things still look good on the ground. People are in a post-COVID celebratory state-of-mind and they're spending, but there's an undercurrent of actions by the Fed and others that are probably setting us up for some hard times in 2023.
He says there are still plenty of ways to take advantage of this unsettled market climate.
Nilus is the coeditor of Safe Money Report, where he applies his decades-long experience with income-generating opportunities across asset classes.
Members are sitting on open gains of 39%, 32% and 27%, despite the volatility.
As coeditor of Weiss Crypto Investor, he offers insights about where to find profits beyond Bitcoin (BTC).
With the recent collapse of the world's second largest exchange, FTX, he's helping investors retain self-custody of their assets, rather than keeping them on centralized platforms they may be concerned about.
And he tells me, "Going forward, I'll write about how to use any crypto losses you have for a good tax benefit."
In today's five-minute video segment, Nilus discusses more of the strategies he'll delve into in incoming issues of both Weiss Crypto Investor and Safe Money Report.
He expects the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish at the next meeting Dec. 13, noting that "if they pivot now, it's straight back to the problems they are trying to solve."
He sees a dramatic economic decline in 2023, warning that the market is not in any kind of bottom just yet:
Although it's come down from its ridiculous highs, in terms of valuation, it doesn't mean it's a screaming bargain or that it has priced in any type of major economic calamity or even a minor recession, for that matter.
I just think it's really about staying cautious right now and recognizing the market is not in deep value territory by any historical measure.
The Fed is committed to raising rates, and at the same time, the markets aren't pricing in what could happen over the next six months to a year.
Bullishness is still baked in across all aspects of the financial markets and I think that the Fed has to sense that.
The stock market is priced for perfection, but I have an idea that we're going to go into a less-than-perfect situation.
Nilus and I also explore:
- Two retailers rising steadily, one of which has raised its 2023 revenue targets by 5% and 5.5%.
- Wash-sale rules and tax-loss harvesting, and how it can benefit you no matter what losses — or gains — have hit your portfolio.
- The contagion effect in the crypto industry. Check out this short clip of Nilus and I covering the FTX meltdown on LinkedIn, and why he thinks it was not a pure black swan event.
And more.
The information in this short segment couldn't be timelier. Just go to the video box above to watch it now.
Happy investing!
Jessica Borg
Financial News Anchor
Weiss Ratings
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