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| By Marija Matic |
The financial world is currently stuck in a "he-said, she-said" loop. It would be comical if the stakes weren't so high.
On one side, President Trump has announced a five-day pause in military strikes following "productive conversations."
On the other, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is dismissing those reports as "fake news" used to manipulate oil prices.
And in between, the world is left floundering for stability. Markets are jumping on every headline.
But the noise hides a deeper shift in capital.
While mainstream attention is fixed on the political theater, Bitcoin’s resilience suggests it might just make a run for gold’s crown.
The Safe-Haven Shift
A few weeks ago, I told you that Bitcoin was a stronger safe-haven asset than gold.
I followed that up with four more benefits Bitcoin boasts that gold could never offer.
Now, the market is waking up to this reality.
Gold is flirting with a technical bear market. It’s weighed down by high interest rates and a surging dollar.
And Bitcoin has been quietly outperforming it for the past three weeks. So far this Monday, it’s shaping up to add a fourth.
Furthermore, looking at the Bitcoin (BTC, “B+”)/Gold ratio, we see a continuous pattern of "shallowing" bottoms.
- In 2014, the ratio dropped 86% at its low.
- In 2018, it was 83%.
- And in 2022, it was 76%.
This year’s probable bottom sits at approximately 70%.
This data suggests that the worst of the BTC/Gold drawdown has been behind us for three weeks now. From here, the momentum has started to favor Bitcoin again.
But here’s the kicker: This isn’t the first time BTC has outperformed in a crisis.
Over the past six years, BTC has shown a positive result just 60 days after seven major geopolitical events. That includes the current Iran War.
And in six cases, the gains crossed into double-digit territory.
Gold only showed a positive return in five of those instances. And only one managed to hit double digits.
What this means is simple: Bitcoin didn’t suddenly become the better route when capital gets scared. It’s been outperforming.
It’s only recently that more investors have taken note.
The Strait of Hormuz: More Than Just Oil
The immediate risk remains the Strait of Hormuz.
If this blockage persists, we will be looking at a systemic supply chain shock that mirrors the 2020 lockdowns.
The integration that made the modern world efficient … has now made it fragile.
That’s why investors are just now starting to realize that Bitcoin — decentralized and beyond the reach of maritime blockades — offers a different kind of safety.
Institutional Conviction vs. Retail Apathy
Despite all this, the current phase feels like a textbook bear market bottom.
That’s because, frankly, the retail crowd has largely checked out. Transaction volumes for trades under $10,000 are at their lowest levels since early 2025.
But while the public is looking away, the "smart money" is moving in:
- Whale Accumulation: Addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC are buying aggressively in the $65k–$70k range.
- The Ethereum (ETH, “B+”) Yield Play: Bitmine recently added over 65,000 ETH to its holdings, bringing its total to 4.66 million tokens. By staking the majority of this, it is effectively building an industrial-scale revenue stream (via $184M in annual staking rewards) that functions regardless of what happens in the Persian Gulf.
- The Solana (SOL, “B-”) Streak: While SOL’s price has been going sideways, institutional inflows into Solana products have hit seven straight weeks. This is a clear signal that the appetite for high-performance networks is becoming more professionalized.
The "Air Gap" and the Long Game
Still, Bitcoin is currently stuck in a no-man’s-land.
On one side, rising energy costs from Middle East tensions are squeezing miner margins.
On the other, a six-month long decoupling from the S&P 500 — the longest since 2020 — suggests that this "crypto winter" was priced in long before traditional equities began to wobble.
We are now watching for the signals of a true bottom. Historically, Bitcoin is the first to bottom and the first to lead the rally when the macro tide turns.
In this way, it often acts as a liquidity canary in the crypto coal mine.
One of the metrics I am viewing closely is the "Percent of Supply in Profit." A confident move over the 60% threshold has historically marked the very early stages of a cycle recovery.
And right now, it’s hovering around 55%.
A price push into the $72,000–$82,000 "air gap" would probably drive the Percent of Supply in Profit toward the 75% threshold and give us the definitive structural shift we’ve been waiting for.
Until then, volatility is the only guarantee. But for those tracking institutional flows and the BTC/Gold dynamic, the long-term trend is becoming difficult to ignore.
If you don’t have Bitcoin exposure yet, you may want to plan your entrance.
BTC is currently trading just above $70,000. If it hits the air gap above $72,000 before you load up, you may just find yourself chasing the market.
Beyond Bitcoin, I hope you paid attention to the Institutional Conviction section of this update.
Rather than checking out during this type of market — as many retail investors have — savvy individuals know to make the most of this moment.
They’re using this time to watch exactly where the biggest players are placing their bets. And they’ll be ready to follow suit when stability reenters the chat.
Best,
Marija Matić
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