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| By Beth Canova |
Bitcoin (BTC) started the final week of September on the back foot.
The world’s largest crypto briefly slipped below $83,000 during early trading Monday. At one point, BTC was down about 1.8% over 24 hours.
Most of the selling came during the Asian trading session.
But this wasn’t just a crypto story.
And it’s an excellent reminder of why intraday swings should be regarded with a grain of salt …
Oil prices rose as hopes for a U.S.-Iran truce faded. Brent crude climbed 1.6% to $106 a barrel. At the same time, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury moved up to about 5.51%.1
That matters for Bitcoin.
Higher oil prices can add to fears of inflation. And higher bond yields give investors a safer place to earn a return.
Both can make risk assets like Bitcoin less appealing in the short run.
Still, there is an important point here …
Bitcoin may be down today. But zoom out, and the picture looks very different.
Q3 Has Been a Big One for Bitcoin
Bitcoin entered the third quarter of 2026 near $58,500. By Sunday, Sept. 27, it was trading above $84,000.
That put its Q3 gain at roughly 43.2%.
And that is a big deal.
Bitcoin’s third quarter has often been a weak spot. From 2013 through 2025, its average Q3 return was just over 6%. The median gain was less than 1%, according to historical CoinGlass data.2
That means, even after today’s early pullback, Bitcoin is on pace for its second-best Q3 ever.
Only Q3 2017, when Bitcoin gained about 80% over the quarter, was stronger.
That tells us something important.
This latest drop looks more like a short-term pullback inside a much stronger trend.
What Comes Next?
History gets more interesting from here.
Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter on average. And from 2013 through 2025, Bitcoin posted a median Q4 gain of about 48%.
To be clear, history does not say Bitcoin must surge into year-end. The OG crypto has fallen during Q4 in 2014, 2018, 2019, 2022 and 2025.
What it does tell us is that a strong finish to the year is far from unusual. And Bitcoin is set to start the final quarter of 2026 with real momentum.
That makes the next few days important.
If Bitcoin quickly moves back into the $83,000-to-$85,000 area, Monday’s dip may prove to be little more than noise. That was the range Bitcoin had been trading in late last week.
And that aligns with Juan Villaverde’s latest outlook, which now expects a local high to be made by mid-Q4.
Still, savvy traders will want to keep an eye on oil prices and bond yields. If both continue to climb, Bitcoin could face more pressure before it returns to strength.
Either way, the bigger trend is hard to ignore.
Bitcoin is closing out one of its best third quarters in more than a decade.
And if its usual Q4 strength shows up again, Monday’s dip may look very small by the end of the year.
Best,
Beth Canova
P.S. While traders watch these near-term swings closely, long-term HODLers are beginning to load up on crypto’s biggest blue-chip assets.
To learn which ones Juan’s Crypto Timing Model says are good to buy now, click here.
1https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-dips-below-83000-on-monday-extending-last-weeks-retreat/
