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| By Marija Matic |
Bitcoin (BTC, “B+”) entered July with a clean bounce off late-June weakness, tracking a pattern that’s become familiar over the years.
Seasonality has historically favored bulls at this point in the calendar: July has delivered some of Bitcoin’s strongest average returns, while June tends to lag.
That rhythm appears intact so far.
The move hasn’t happened in a vacuum: A softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report just before the U.S. Independence Day set the tone, giving risk assets room to breathe. Then, thin liquidity over the holiday weekend helped stabilize price action, with global attention pulled toward macro and geopolitical events.
In crypto, that translated into steady upside with little resistance.
A Messy Macro Picture
The macro picture underneath the recent price action, however, remains anything but straightforward.
The Federal Reserve is still navigating a difficult balancing act: A cooling labor market is beginning to show through in the data. But inflation hasn’t convincingly rolled over.
At the same time, political pressure to ease policy is building.
Markets are now pricing a high probability that rates stay elevated through the rest of the year, leaving policymakers boxed into a narrow path.
For crypto, this kind of ambiguity usually creates volatility. Instead, we’re seeing the opposite — at least for now.
Implied volatility across Bitcoin has drifted lower as prices recover, and derivatives positioning suggests the market is cautiously constructive rather than euphoric.
Near-term downside hedging has eased, with put skew normalizing after recent stress.
At the same time, there’s clear appetite for upside exposure, particularly around the end of July. Flows into Bitcoin call options with a $70,000 strike point to traders positioning for a continuation of the seasonal trend.
In plain English, prices likely aren’t going to dip from here. And from a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s rebound from the $58,000 region has reinforced that level as meaningful support.
But while there is an appetite for upside exposure, we aren’t yet seeing the sort of frenzy that would suggest a massive rally is ahead.
A decisive reclaim of the $64,000 level — that is, multiple consecutive closes above it — would likely shift sentiment more materially and open the door for momentum-driven flows to re-enter the market.
History’s Crypto Lesson
Even if we see $64,000 reclaimed soon, there is still reason to move forward with caution in the medium-term.
History offers a cautionary note …
While July has been strong on average, the months that follow have often been less forgiving.
Bitcoin has a tendency to rally mid-summer, lose traction in August, and ultimately find a more durable bottom closer to September. Indeed, Juan Villaverde’s latest analysis suggests this pattern will repeat this year.
And that hasn’t gone unnoticed by others. Demand for year-end downside protection — particularly around the $58,000 strike — remains firm.
This suggests some investors are still preparing for a second-half shakeout.
Flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs could play a decisive role here, as the return of inflows at the end of last week marked an important shift. If sustained, that demand could help anchor price action and counterbalance macro headwinds.
A Broader Shift in the Narrative
There are also important structural developments unfolding beneath the surface.
Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, reduced its position by 3,588 BTC, worth roughly $225 million, bringing total holdings to 843,775 BTC.
The move is tied to funding obligations around its Digital Credit structure and has sparked debate in the market.
In the short term, forced or strategic selling from a player of that size can create localized pressure, which we saw play out recently. But longer term, however, it may be a necessary step: Deleveraging excess risk now could remove a source of instability later in the cycle.
Elsewhere, capital continues to rotate aggressively across the broader crypto ecosystem.
Bitmine added more than 42,000 Ethereum (ETH, “B+”) in a single week. Enough to push its holdings to 5.74 million ETH.
That’s a strong signal that institutional appetite is not confined to Bitcoin alone.
Private market activity tells a similar story: Fundraising is accelerating again, particularly in segments tied to real-world utility.
Mesh, a crypto payments firm, is reportedly targeting a new round led by Binance at a valuation of up to $2 billion, reflecting growing demand for infrastructure that bridges fiat and tokenized assets.
Meanwhile, Venice AI (VVV, “B-”) secured $65 million in fresh capital at a $1 billion valuation. It aims to scale private and unrestricted AI services to a rapidly expanding user base.
This matters because it shifts the narrative.
Crypto isn’t just trading beta to macro: It is increasingly being valued on its own growth vectors, from payments to tokenization to AI-linked infrastructure.
At the same time, cracks are appearing in traditional markets that could indirectly support digital assets.
Energy funds saw $3.2 billion in outflows in the final week of June, the largest withdrawal in a year, as Saudi Arabia’s aggressive price cuts for Asian crude buyers underlines weakening demand expectations.
If the global growth outlook continues to soften, it strengthens the case for eventual monetary easing. Even if that pivot isn’t immediate.
All eyes now turn to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which will take place later this month.
The markets will look for any signal on how policymakers interpret the recent data and whether the balance of risks is beginning to shift.
Bottom Line
For Bitcoin, this setup is balanced on a pinpoint.
On one side, you have supportive seasonality, stabilizing derivatives markets, renewed ETF inflows and strong underlying capital formation across the industry.
On the other, a still-restrictive macro environment, cautious positioning from longer-term investors and historical patterns that argue for volatility later in the quarter.
The next move will likely come down to which force asserts itself first.
For now, the path of least resistance in the near term appears higher, even if conviction remains conditional.
Best,
Marija Matić
P.S. One big development that’ll give this market clarity is a confirmation of crypto’s 4-year cycle low. In fact, cycles expert Juan Villaverde already has his indicators on the hunt for it now.
To be among the first to know when his model signals the low is in, click here.
